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A Forward Projection of the Cross-Country Income Distribution

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Author Info

  • Costas Azariadis

    ()
    (Department of Economics, University of California Los Angeles)

  • John Stachurski

    ()
    (Institute of Economic Research, Kyoto University)

Abstract

This paper proposes and implements a method to predict evolution of the crosscountry income distribution from a nonconvex growth model with unbounded productivity shocks, fitted to panel data by threshold autoregresion. We estimate the stochastic kernel of the process, and define inducively all future distributions as a norm-convergent sequence in the function space L1. Elements of the sequence are calculated using Monte Carlo simulation. Our results suggest that nonlinearities in the growth process are responsible for emerging bimodality in the distribution of income, but that such bimodality eventually peaks and declines. In the long run we predict convergence.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research in its series KIER Working Papers with number 570.

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Length: 26 pages
Date of creation: May 2003
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:kyo:wpaper:570

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Cited by:
  1. Stephen C. Smith & Sungil Kwak, 2011. "Regional Agricultural Endowments and Shifts of Poverty Trap Equilibria: Evidence from Ethiopian Panel Data," Working Papers 2011-01, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy.
  2. Daniel J. Henderson & Christopher F. Parmeter & R. Robert Russell, 2008. "Modes, weighted modes, and calibrated modes: evidence of clustering using modality tests," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(5), pages 607-638.
  3. Blackburn, Keith & Forgues-Puccio, Gonzalo F., 2005. "Distribution and Development in a Model of Misgovernance," Proceedings of the German Development Economics Conference, Kiel 2005 15, Verein für Socialpolitik, Research Committee Development Economics.
  4. Kraay, Aart & Raddatz, Claudio, 2007. "Poverty traps, aid, and growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(2), pages 315-347, March.
  5. Fotopoulos, Georgios, 2006. "Nonparametric analysis of regional income dynamics: The case of Greece," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 91(3), pages 450-457, June.
  6. Riccardo DiCecio & Charles S. Gascon, 2008. "Convergence in the United States: a tale of migration and urbanization," Working Papers 2008-002, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  7. Keith Blackburn & Gonzalo F. Forgues-Puccio, 2011. "Foreign Aid - a Fillip for Development or a Fuel for Corruption?," CDMA Working Paper Series 201107, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis.
  8. Azariadis, Costas & Stachurski, John, 2005. "Poverty Traps," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 5 Elsevier.
  9. Riccardo DiCecio & Charles Gascon, 2010. "Income convergence in the United States: a tale of migration and urbanization," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer, vol. 45(2), pages 365-377, October.
  10. Lopez, Humberto & Serven, Luis, 2009. "Too poor to grow," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5012, The World Bank.

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