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A Forward Projection of the Cross-Country Income Distribution

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Author Info
Costas Azariadis () (Department of Economics, University of California Los Angeles)
John Stachurski () (Institute of Economic Research, Kyoto University)

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Abstract

This paper proposes and implements a method to predict evolution of the crosscountry income distribution from a nonconvex growth model with unbounded productivity shocks, fitted to panel data by threshold autoregresion. We estimate the stochastic kernel of the process, and define inducively all future distributions as a norm-convergent sequence in the function space L1. Elements of the sequence are calculated using Monte Carlo simulation. Our results suggest that nonlinearities in the growth process are responsible for emerging bimodality in the distribution of income, but that such bimodality eventually peaks and declines. In the long run we predict convergence.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research in its series KIER Working Papers with number 570.

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Length: 26 pages
Date of creation: May 2003
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:kyo:wpaper:570

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  1. Kraay, Aart & Raddatz, Claudio, 2005. "Poverty traps, aid, and growth," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3631, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Riccardo DiCecio & Charles S. Gascon, 2008. "Convergence in the United States: a tale of migration and urbanization," Working Papers 2008-002, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
  3. Costas Aariadis & John Stachurski, 2004. "Poverty Traps," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 913, The University of Melbourne. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
    • Azariadis, Costas & Stachurski, John, 2005. "Poverty Traps," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 5 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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This page was last updated on 2009-12-7.


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