A Forward Projection of the Cross-Country Income Distribution
AbstractThis paper proposes and implements a method to predict evolution of the crosscountry income distribution from a nonconvex growth model with unbounded productivity shocks, fitted to panel data by threshold autoregresion. We estimate the stochastic kernel of the process, and define inducively all future distributions as a norm-convergent sequence in the function space L1. Elements of the sequence are calculated using Monte Carlo simulation. Our results suggest that nonlinearities in the growth process are responsible for emerging bimodality in the distribution of income, but that such bimodality eventually peaks and declines. In the long run we predict convergence.
Download InfoTo our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
1. Check below under "Related research" whether another version of this item is available online.
2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research in its series KIER Working Papers with number 570.
Length: 26 pages
Date of creation: May 2003
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: Yoshida-Honmachi, Sakyo-ku, Kyoto 606-8501
Web page: http://www.kier.kyoto-u.ac.jp/eng/index.html
More information through EDIRC
You can help add them by filling out this form.
CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
- Daniel J. Henderson & Christopher F. Parmeter & R. Robert Russell, 2008. "Modes, weighted modes, and calibrated modes: evidence of clustering using modality tests," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(5), pages 607-638.
- Keith Blackburn & Gonzalo F. Forgues-Puccio, 2011.
"Foreign Aid – A Fillip for Development or a Fuel for Corruption?,"
Development Research Working Paper Series
09/2011, Institute for Advanced Development Studies.
- Keith Blackburn & Gonzalo F. Forgues-Puccio, 2011. "Foreign Aid - a Fillip for Development or a Fuel for Corruption?," CDMA Working Paper Series 201107, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis.
- Keith Blackburn & Gonzalo F. Forgues-Puccio, 2011. "Foreign aid - a fillip for development or a fuel for corruption?," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 158, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester.
- K Blackburn & G F Forgues-Puccio, 2004.
"Distribution and Development in a Model of Misgovernance,"
Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series
42, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester.
- Blackburn, Keith & Forgues-Puccio, Gonzalo F., 2007. "Distribution and development in a model of misgovernance," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 51(6), pages 1534-1563, August.
- Blackburn, Keith & Forgues-Puccio, Gonzalo F., 2005. "Distribution and Development in a Model of Misgovernance," Proceedings of the German Development Economics Conference, Kiel 2005 15, Verein für Socialpolitik, Research Committee Development Economics.
- Kraay, Aart & Raddatz, Claudio, 2005.
"Poverty traps, aid, and growth,"
Policy Research Working Paper Series
3631, The World Bank.
- Riccardo DiCecio & Charles S. Gascon, 2008. "Convergence in the United States: a tale of migration and urbanization," Working Papers 2008-002, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Azariadis, Costas & Stachurski, John, 2005.
Handbook of Economic Growth,
in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 5
- Lopez, Humberto & Serven, Luis, 2009. "Too poor to grow," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5012, The World Bank.
- Riccardo DiCecio & Charles Gascon, 2010. "Income convergence in the United States: a tale of migration and urbanization," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer, vol. 45(2), pages 365-377, October.
- Stephen C. Smith & Sungil Kwak, 2011. "Regional Agricultural Endowments and Shifts of Poverty Trap Equilibria: Evidence from Ethiopian Panel Data," Working Papers 2011-01, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy.
- Fotopoulos, Georgios, 2006. "Nonparametric analysis of regional income dynamics: The case of Greece," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 91(3), pages 450-457, June.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Akihisa Shibata).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.