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Monetary policy and the determination of the interest rate and exchange rate in a small open economy with increasing capital mobility

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  • Byung Chan Ahn
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    Abstract

    This paper presents a general model of the determination of the interest rate and the exchange rate which is relevant for a small economy with any degree of capital mobility. The model is tested by using the quarterly data of Korea and Singapore. The emperical results show that in the Korean case changes in money supply affect the interest rate, but do not affect the exchange rate, while in the case of Singapore the domestic interest rate is determined by the foreign interest rate and the expected change in the exchange rate, as well as by changes in the money supply; changes in the money supply also influence the exchange rate. The results imply that the progress of capital liberalization in a small country will alter the transmission mechanism from reliance on the interest rate channel alone to effects arising through both the interest rate and the exchange rate.

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    File URL: http://research.stlouisfed.org/wp/more/1994-024/
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis in its series Working Papers with number 1994-024.

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    Date of creation: 1994
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    Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:1994-024

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    Keywords: Monetary policy ; Interest rates ; Foreign exchange rates ; Capital movements;

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    1. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-76, December.
    2. Frankel, Jeffrey A, 1982. "The Mystery of the Multiplying Marks: A Modification of the Monetary Model," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 64(3), pages 515-19, August.
    3. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    4. Jeffrey R. Shafer & Bonnie E. Loopesko, 1983. "Floating Exchange Rates after Ten years," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 14(1), pages 1-86.
    5. Branson, William H. & Halttunen, Hannu & Masson, Paul, 1977. "Exchange rates in the short run: The dollar-dentschemark rate," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 303-324.
    6. Sebastian Edwards, 1984. "Money, The Rate of Devaluation and Interest Rates in a Semi-Open Economy: Colombia 1968-1982," NBER Working Papers 1380, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
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