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Uncovering country risk in emerging market bond prices

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Author Info
Erik Durbin
David Tat-Chee Ng

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Abstract

We investigate the role of "country risk" in determining the default risk of firms in emerging markets. In particular, we study the relationship between the secondary market spreads (over hard-currency government bond yields) of bonds issued by emerging market firms and bonds issued by their home governments over the past 3 1/2 years. Our results indicate that market participants do not strictly apply the "sovereign ceiling," under which no firm is more creditworthy than its government. We do find that the spreads of emerging market corporate and government bonds over hard-currency government bonds are highly correlated. The correlation is higher for some industries than for others, and we find no evidence that banks face greater country risk.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its series International Finance Discussion Papers with number 639.

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Date of creation: 1999
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:639

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Related research
Keywords: Risk ; Bonds ; Credit ; Developing countries;

References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Bekaert, Geert & Harvey, Campbell R., 1997. "Emerging equity market volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 29-77, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Boehmer, Ekkehart & Megginson, William L, 1990. " Determinants of Secondary Market Prices for Developing Country Syndicated Loans," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(5), pages 1517-40, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Robert E. Cumby & Martin D.D. Evans, 1995. "The Term Structure of Credit Risk: Estimates and Specification Tests," Working Papers 95-14, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
  4. Frederic S. Mishkin, 1997. "Understanding Financial Crises: A Developing Country Perspective," NBER Working Papers 5600, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Harvey, Campbell R, 1995. "Predictable Risk and Returns in Emerging Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 8(3), pages 773-816. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Claessens, Stijn & Pennacchi, George, 1996. "Estimating the Likelihood of Mexican Default from the Market Prices of Brady Bonds," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 31(01), pages 109-126, March. [Downloadable!]
  7. Claessens, Stijn & Dasgupta, Susmita & Glen, Jack, 1995. "Return Behavior in Emerging Stock Markets," World Bank Economic Review, Oxford University Press, vol. 9(1), pages 131-51, January.
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Sandra Lizarazo, 2009. "Contagion of Financial Crises in Sovereing Debt Markets," Working Papers 0907, Centro de Investigacion Economica, ITAM. [Downloadable!]
  2. Fernandez, Pablo, 2004. "80 common and uncommon errors in company valuation," IESE Research Papers D/550, IESE Business School. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Radovan Vadovic, 2009. "Early, Late, and Multiple Bidding in Internet Auctions," Working Papers 0904, Centro de Investigacion Economica, ITAM. [Downloadable!]
  4. Fernandez, Pablo & Bilan, Andrada, 2007. "110 common errors in company valuations," IESE Research Papers D/714, IESE Business School. [Downloadable!]
  5. Galati, Davide & Sitzia, Bruno, 2000. "Sovereign bond ratings and market spreads. a dynamic panel analysis," MPRA Paper 8984, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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