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External adjustment in selected developing countries in the 1990s

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  • William L. Helkie
  • David H. Howard

Abstract

An analytic and accounting framework is presented for examining the evolution of the external positions of eight developing countries: Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Korea, Mexico, Peru, the Philippines, and Venezuela. The framework is used to analyze the historical paths of external debts in these countries. Then, under fairly conventional baseline specifications, and assuming that no other relevant factors change significantly, projections for the debt-export ratios in these eight developing countries are generated, using the analytic framework and a simple simulation model. The baseline projections indicate cases in which external adjustment might be warranted. Through the simulation of some alternative scenarios, the analysis then suggests ways and means of effecting the necessary adjustments, including a rough idea of what magnitudes might be involved.

Suggested Citation

  • William L. Helkie & David H. Howard, 1991. "External adjustment in selected developing countries in the 1990s," International Finance Discussion Papers 417, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:417
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Michael P. Dooley, 1988. "Capital Flight: A Response to Differences in Financial Risks," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 35(3), pages 422-436, September.
    2. Pedro Aspe Armella & Rudiger Dornbusch & Maurice Obstfeld, 1983. "Financial Policies and the World Capital Market: The Problem of Latin American Countries," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number arme83-1, March.
    3. Rudiger Dornbusch, 1985. "Policy and Performance Links between LDC Debtors and Industrial Nations," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 16(2), pages 303-368.
    4. Marian E. Bond, 1985. "Export Demand and Supply for Groups of Non-Oil Developing Countries (La demande et l'offre d'exportations dans différents groupes de pays en développement non pétroliers) (Demanda y oferta de expor," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 32(1), pages 56-77, March.
    5. Marquez, Jaime & McNeilly, Caryl, 1988. "Income and Price Elasticities for Exports of Developing Countries," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 70(2), pages 306-314, May.
    6. O'Connell, Stephen A & Zeldes, Stephen P, 1988. "Rational Ponzi Games," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 29(3), pages 431-450, August.
    7. Olivier Jean Blanchard, 1983. "Debt and the Current Account Deficit in Brazil," NBER Chapters, in: Financial Policies and the World Capital Market: The Problem of Latin American Countries, pages 187-198, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. David H. Howard, 1989. "The United States as a heavily indebted country," International Finance Discussion Papers 353, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    9. Sachs, Jeffrey, 1982. " The Current Account in the Macroeconomic Adjustment Process," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 84(2), pages 147-159.
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