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Post econometric policy evaluation: a critique

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Author Info
Beth Ingram
Eric M. Leeper

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Abstract

An increasingly popular approach to policy evaluation involves applying the parameters calibrated for a real business cycle model that does not include policy to a different model, where policy does affect private decisions. This technique, in effect, estimates a model that misspecifies how private behavior depends on policy. The calibrated parameters depend on policy behavior, but calibrators overlook this dependence when projecting policy effects. This procedure repeats the "Keynesian" errors that Lucas (1976) noted in his influential critique of (then) standard methods of econometric policy evaluation and produces predictions of policy consequences that may be no more useful than ones from traditional econometric models.

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Paper provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its series International Finance Discussion Papers with number 393.

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Date of creation: 1990
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:393

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Keywords: Business cycles ; Econometric models;

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1982. "Interest rates and currency prices in a two-country world," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 335-359. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Long, John B, Jr & Plosser, Charles I, 1983. "Real Business Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(1), pages 39-69, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Lee, Bong-Soo & Ingram, Beth Fisher, 1991. "Simulation estimation of time-series models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 47(2-3), pages 197-205, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Martin Eichenbaum, 1990. "Real Business Cycle Theory: Wisdom or Whimsy?," NBER Working Papers 3432, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Cooley, Thomas F & Hansen, Gary D, 1989. "The Inflation Tax in a Real Business Cycle Model," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 733-48, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Wilbur John Coleman II, 1988. "Money, interest, and capital in a cash-in-advance economy," International Finance Discussion Papers 323, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  7. King, R.G. & Rebelo, S.T., 1989. "Transitional Dynamics And Economic Growth In The Neoclassical Model," RCER Working Papers 206, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
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  8. Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 19-46, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Sargent, Thomas J, 1984. "Autoregressions, Expectations, and Advice," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(2), pages 408-15, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum, 1990. "Current real business cycle theories and aggregate labor market fluctuations," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 90, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
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  11. Greenwood, J. & Huffman, G., 1991. "Tax Analysis in A Real Business Cycle Model: On Measuring Harberger Triangles and Okun Gaps," UWO Department of Economics Working Papers 9103, University of Western Ontario, Department of Economics.
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  12. Robert G. King & Sergio Rebelo, 1990. "Public Policy and Economic Growth: Developing Neoclassical Implications," NBER Working Papers 3338, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Imrohoruglu, Ayse, 1989. "Cost of Business Cycles with Indivisibilities and Liquidity Constraints," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(6), pages 1364-83, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Jeremy Greenwood & Zvi Hercowitz, 1990. "The allocation of goods and time over the business cycle," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 26, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
  15. Altug, Sumru, 1989. "Time-to-Build and Aggregate Fluctuations: Some New Evidence," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 30(4), pages 889-920, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Finn E. Kydland, 1989. "The role of money in a business cycle model," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 23, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
  17. Hansen, G.D. & Imrohoroglu, A., 1990. "The Role Of Unemployment Insurance In An Economy With Liquidity Constraints And Moral Hazard," Papers 21, California Los Angeles - Applied Econometrics.
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  18. Danthine, Jean-Pierre & Donaldson, John B. & Smith, Lance, 1987. "On the superneutrality of money in a stochastic dynamic macroeconomic model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 475-499, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Robert E. Lucas, Jr. & Nancy L. Stokey, 1987. "Money and Interest in a Cash-in-Advance Economy," NBER Working Papers 1618, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Chan Huh & Bharat Trehan, 1991. "Real business cycles: a selective survey," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Spr, pages 3-17. [Downloadable!]
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