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Post econometric policy evaluation: a critique Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics Beth Ingram
Eric M. Leeper
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An increasingly popular approach to policy evaluation involves applying the parameters calibrated for a real business cycle model that does not include policy to a different model, where policy does affect private decisions. This technique, in effect, estimates a model that misspecifies how private behavior depends on policy. The calibrated parameters depend on policy behavior, but calibrators overlook this dependence when projecting policy effects. This procedure repeats the "Keynesian" errors that Lucas (1976) noted in his influential critique of (then) standard methods of econometric policy evaluation and produces predictions of policy consequences that may be no more useful than ones from traditional econometric models.
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Paper provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its series International Finance Discussion Papers with number
393.
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Date of creation: 1990Date of revision:
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Keywords: Business cycles ; Econometric models ; Other versions of this item:
References listed on IDEAS Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile , click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.: Lucas, Robert Jr., 1982.
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Other versions:
Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum, 1990.
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Other versions:
Jeremy Greenwood & Gregory W. Huffman, 1991.
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[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
King, R.G. & Rebelo, S., 1988.
"Public Policy And Economic Growth: Developing Neoclassical Implications ,"
RCER Working Papers
225, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
King, Robert G & Rebelo, Sergio, 1990.
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[Downloadable!] (restricted) Imrohoruglu, Ayse, 1989.
"Cost of Business Cycles with Indivisibilities and Liquidity Constraints ,"
Journal of Political Economy ,
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[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Jeremy Greenwood & Zvi Hercowitz, 1990.
"The allocation of goods and time over the business cycle ,"
Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics
26, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
[Downloadable!]
Altug, Sumru, 1989.
"Time-to-Build and Aggregate Fluctuations: Some New Evidence ,"
International Economic Review ,
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[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions: Finn E. Kydland, 1989.
"The role of money in a business cycle model ,"
Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics
23, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
[Downloadable!]
Hansen, G.D. & Imrohoroglu, A., 1990.
"The Role Of Unemployment Insurance In An Economy With Liquidity Constraints And Moral Hazard ,"
Papers
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Other versions:
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"The Role of Unemployment Insurance in an Economy with Liquidity Constraints and Moral Hazard ,"
UCLA Economics Working Papers
583, UCLA Department of Economics.
[Downloadable!] Hansen, Gary D & Imrohoroglu, Ayse, 1992.
"The Role of Unemployment Insurance in an Economy with Liquidity Constraints and Moral Hazard ,"
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[Downloadable!] (restricted) Danthine, Jean-Pierre & Donaldson, John B. & Smith, Lance, 1987.
"On the superneutrality of money in a stochastic dynamic macroeconomic model ,"
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[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Robert E. Lucas, Jr. & Nancy L. Stokey, 1987.
"Money and Interest in a Cash-in-Advance Economy ,"
NBER Working Papers
1618, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
Robert E. Lucas Jr. & Nancy L. Stokey, 1984.
"Money and Interest in Cash-In-Advance Economy ,"
Discussion Papers
628, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
[Downloadable!] Lucas, Robert E, Jr & Stokey, Nancy L, 1987.
"Money and Interest in a Cash-in-Advance Economy ,"
Econometrica ,
Econometric Society, vol. 55(3), pages 491-513, May.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
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references Cited by : (explanations , Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile , click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)
Chan Huh & Bharat Trehan, 1991.
"Real business cycles: a selective survey ,"
Economic Review ,
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Spr, pages 3-17.
[Downloadable!]
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