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Why Do We Think That Inflation Expectations Matter for Inflation? (And Should We?)

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Abstract

Economists and economic policymakers believe that households' and firms' expectations of future inflation are a key determinant of actual inflation. A review of the relevant theoretical and empirical literature suggests that this belief rests on extremely shaky foundations, and a case is made that adhering to it uncritically could easily lead to serious policy errors.

Suggested Citation

  • Jeremy B. Rudd, 2021. "Why Do We Think That Inflation Expectations Matter for Inflation? (And Should We?)," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2021-062, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2021-62
    DOI: 10.17016/FEDS.2021.062
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    1. Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 115(1), pages 147-180.
    2. Gordon, Robert J., 1976. "Recent developments in the theory of inflation and unemployment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 185-219, April.
    3. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2015. "Is the Phillips Curve Alive and Well after All? Inflation Expectations and the Missing Disinflation," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(1), pages 197-232, January.
    4. Jeremy B. Rudd, 2020. "Underlying Inflation: Its Measurement and Significance," FEDS Notes 2020-09-18-1, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    5. Zhen Huo & José-Víctor Ríos-Rull, 2020. "Sticky Wage Models and Labor Supply Constraints," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 12(3), pages 284-318, July.
    6. Orphanides, Athanasios, 2004. "Monetary Policy Rules, Macroeconomic Stability, and Inflation: A View from the Trenches," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(2), pages 151-175, April.
    7. Usher, Dan (ed.), 1980. "The Measurement of Capital," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, number 9780226843001, December.
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    9. McCallum, Bennett T, 1976. "Rational Expectations and the Natural Rate Hypothesis: Some Consistent Estimates," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 44(1), pages 43-52, January.
    10. Robert J. Shiller, 1997. "Why Do People Dislike Inflation?," NBER Chapters, in: Reducing Inflation: Motivation and Strategy, pages 13-70, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 2006. "Were There Regime Switches in U.S. Monetary Policy?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(1), pages 54-81, March.
    12. Michael D. Bordo & Athanasios Orphanides, 2013. "The Great Inflation: The Rebirth of Modern Central Banking," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bord08-1, May.
    13. Jesus Felipe & Franklin M. Fisher, 2003. "Aggregation in Production Functions: What Applied Economists should Know," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 54(2‐3), pages 208-262, May.
    14. Friedman, Milton, 1977. "Nobel Lecture: Inflation and Unemployment," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 451-472, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Christian P Pinshi, 2022. "Ciblage des prévisions d'inflation : Un nouveau cadre pour la politique monétaire ?," Working Papers hal-03548273, HAL.
    2. Emanuel Kohlscheen, 2021. "What does machine learning say about the drivers of inflation?," BIS Working Papers 980, Bank for International Settlements.
    3. Monique Reid & Pierre Siklos, 2023. "Rationality and biases insights from disaggregated firm level inflation expectations data," Working Papers 11050, South African Reserve Bank.
    4. Panovska, Irina & Ramamurthy, Srikanth, 2022. "Decomposing the output gap with inflation learning," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    5. Pedro Elosegui & Máximo Sangiácomo, 2022. "Firm's Price Expectations: An Empirical Analysis using BCRAs' Survey of Business Economic Perspectives," BCRA Working Paper Series 2022103, Central Bank of Argentina, Economic Research Department.
    6. PINSHI, Christian P., 2022. "Inflation-Forecast Targeting: A New Framework for Monetary Policy?," MPRA Paper 111709, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Phillips curve; Expectations; Inflation; Wage determination; Wage-price spiral;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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