Do noisy data exacerbate cyclical volatility?
AbstractHow does the additional uncertainty associated with noisy economic data affect business cycle fluctuations? I use a simple variant of the neoclassical growth model to show that the answer depends crucially on the assumed expectation-formation capabilities of agents. Under efficient signal extracting, noisy economic indicators dampen cyclical volatility. The opposite occurs when agents follow a simple bounded rational strategy.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its series Finance and Economics Discussion Series with number 1999-50.
Date of creation: 1999
Date of revision:
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Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory
95-14, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Kenneth Kasa, 2000. "Forecasting the Forecasts of Others in the Frequency Domain," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 3(4), pages 726-756, October.
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