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Speculative dynamics

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  • Dan Bernhardt

    ()

  • P. Seiler
  • B. Taub

Abstract

We then characterize analytically and numerically how the characteristics of private information—its quantity, persistence and correlation, and division among speculators—affect trading profits, pricing and trading strategies. In particular, we derive how speculators trade on new information versus old, and on private signals versus prices. We show via a frequency-domain argument that trading strategies emphasize new information versus old.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Springer in its journal Economic Theory.

Volume (Year): 44 (2010)
Issue (Month): 1 (July)
Pages: 1-52

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Handle: RePEc:spr:joecth:v:44:y:2010:i:1:p:1-52

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Related research

Keywords: Speculation; Market microstructure finance; Forecasting-the-forecasts; Frequency domain; Stationary linear equilibrium; E3; D4; G1; G12;

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References

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  1. Taub, Bart, 1986. "The tradeoff between social insurance and aggregate fluctuations," Information Economics and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 2(4), pages 259-276, December.
  2. Ball, J. A. & Taub, B., 1991. "Factoring spectral matrices in linear-quadratic models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 39-44, January.
  3. Foster, F. Douglas & Viswanathan, S., 1994. "Strategic Trading with Asymmetrically Informed Traders and Long-Lived Information," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 29(04), pages 499-518, December.
  4. Hua He and Jiang Wang., 1993. "Differential Information and Dynamic Behavior of Stock Trading Volume," Research Program in Finance Working Papers RPF-228, University of California at Berkeley.
  5. Minh Chau & Dimitri Vayanos, 2008. "Strong-Form Efficiency with Monopolistic Insiders," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(5), pages 2275-2306, September.
  6. Back, Kerry & Pedersen, Hal, 1998. "Long-lived information and intraday patterns," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 1(3-4), pages 385-402, September.
  7. Taub, B., 1997. "Optimal policy in a model of endogenous fluctuations and assets," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 21(10), pages 1669-1697, August.
  8. Back, Kerry, 1992. "Insider Trading in Continuous Time," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(3), pages 387-409.
  9. Kenneth Kasa, 2000. "Forecasting the Forecasts of Others in the Frequency Domain," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 3(4), pages 726-756, October.
  10. Hansen, Lars Peter & Sargent, Thomas J., 1980. "Formulating and estimating dynamic linear rational expectations models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 7-46, May.
  11. Kyle, Albert S, 1985. "Continuous Auctions and Insider Trading," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(6), pages 1315-35, November.
  12. Whiteman, Charles H., 1985. "Spectral utility, wiener-hopf techniques, and rational expectations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 225-240, October.
  13. Joseph G. Pearlman & Thomas J. Sargent, 2005. "Knowing the Forecasts of Others," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 8(2), pages 480-497, April.
  14. Dan Bernhardt & Jianjun Miao, 2004. "Informed Trading When Information Becomes Stale," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(1), pages 339-390, 02.
  15. Wang, Jiang, 1994. "A Model of Competitive Stock Trading Volume," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 102(1), pages 127-68, February.
  16. Foster, F Douglas & Viswanathan, S, 1996. " Strategic Trading When Agents Forecast the Forecasts of Others," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(4), pages 1437-78, September.
  17. Kerry Back & C. Henry Cao & Gregory A. Willard, 2000. "Imperfect Competition among Informed Traders," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(5), pages 2117-2155, October.
  18. Wang, Jiang, 1993. "A Model of Intertemporal Asset Prices under Asymmetric Information," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(2), pages 249-82, April.
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Cited by:
  1. Makarov, Igor & Rytchkov, Oleg, 2012. "Forecasting the forecasts of others: Implications for asset pricing," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 147(3), pages 941-966.

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