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The Impact of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act on Local Home Values

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  • Hal Martin

Abstract

This paper simulates changes to neighborhood home prices resulting from reforms to tax preferences in the recently passed Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA). The simulation uses federal tax data summarized at a fine geography to impute homeowner rents at the zip code level across six income classes. Employing a user cost framework, I model rents as a function of prices under the old tax law and under the TCJA. While the average price impact of the TCJA is found to be ?5.7 percent, local effects range from 0 to ?23 percent across zip codes. Variation across income class is also large. Simulations by income class suggest that the most severe declines in price occur for upper middle-income households ($100,000?$200,000). The paper also simulates partial versions of the TCJA that omit different features of the law that affect housing preference. I find that the higher standard deductions in the new law are the largest driver of price declines.

Suggested Citation

  • Hal Martin, 2018. "The Impact of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act on Local Home Values," Working Papers (Old Series) 1806, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedcwp:1806
    DOI: 10.26509/frbc-wp-201806
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. David Albouy & Andrew Hanson, 2014. "Tax Benefits to Housing and Inefficiencies in Location and Consumption," NBER Working Papers 19815, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Andrew Hanson & Hal Martin, 2014. "Housing Market Distortions and the Mortgage Interest Deduction," Public Finance Review, , vol. 42(5), pages 582-607, September.
    3. David Albouy & Andrew Hanson, 2014. "Are Houses Too Big or In the Wrong Place? Tax Benefits to Housing and Inefficiencies in Location and Consumption," Tax Policy and the Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 28(1), pages 63-96.
    4. Joseph Gyourko & Todd Sinai, 2003. "The Spatial Distribution of Housing‐Related Ordinary Income Tax Benefits," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 31(4), pages 527-575, December.
    5. Edward L. Glaeser & Jesse M. Shapiro, 2003. "The Benefits of the Home Mortgage Interest Deduction," NBER Chapters, in: Tax Policy and the Economy, Volume 17, pages 37-82, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    7. Christian A. L. Hilber & Tracy M. Turner, 2014. "The Mortgage Interest Deduction and its Impact on Homeownership Decisions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 96(4), pages 618-637, October.
    8. Martin, Hal & Hanson, Andrew, 2016. "Metropolitan area home prices and the mortgage interest deduction: Estimates and simulations from policy change," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 12-23.
    9. Green, Richard K. & Vandell, Kerry D., 1999. "Giving households credit: How changes in the U.S. tax code could promote homeownership," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 419-444, July.
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    17. Follain, James R. & Ling, David C., 1991. "The Federal Tax Subsidy to Housing and the Reduced Value of the Mortgage Interest Deduction," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 44(2), pages 147-168, June.
    18. Poterba, James M. & Sinai, Todd, 2011. "Revenue Costs and Incentive Effects of the Mortgage Interest Deduction for Owner-Occupied Housing," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 64(2), pages 531-564, June.
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    20. Robert M. Dunsky & James R. Follain, 2000. "Tax-Induced Portfolio Reshuffling: The Case of the Mortgage Interest Deduction," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 28(4), pages 683-718.
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    Cited by:

    1. Wenli Li & Edison Yu, 2022. "Real Estate Taxes and Home Value: Evidence from TCJA," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 43, pages 125-151, January.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    mortgage interest deductions; housing subsidy; income tax;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H24 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Personal Income and Other Nonbusiness Taxes and Subsidies
    • H31 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - Household
    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand

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