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A general-equilibrium asset-pricing approach to the measurement of nominal and real bank output

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Christina Wang
Susanto Basu
John G. Fernald

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Abstract

This paper addresses the proper measurement of financial service output that is not priced explicitly. It shows how to impute nominal service output from financial intermediaries’ interest income and how to construct price indices for those financial services. We present an optimizing model with financial intermediaries that provide financial services to resolve asymmetric information between borrowers and lenders. We embed these intermediaries in a dynamic, stochastic, general-equilibrium model where assets are priced competitively according to their systematic risk, as in the standard consumption capital-asset-pricing model. In this environment, we show that it is critical to take risk into account in order to measure financial output accurately. We also show that even using a risk-adjusted reference rate does not solve all the problems associated with measuring nominal financial service output. Our model allows us to address important outstanding questions in output and productivity measurement for financial firms, such as: (1) What are the correct “reference rates” to use in calculating bank output? In particular, should they take account of risk? (2) If reference rates need to be risk-adjusted, does it mean that they must be ex ante rates of return? (3) What is the right price deflator for the output of financial firms? Is it just the general price index? (4) When—if ever—should we count capital gains of financial firms as part of financial service output?

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Boston in its series Working Papers with number 04-7.

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Date of creation: 2004
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedbwp:04-7

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Keywords: Financial services industry ; Financial markets;

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  5. Bernanke, Ben S. & Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1999. "The financial accelerator in a quantitative business cycle framework," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 21, pages 1341-1393 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Allen N. Berger & David B. Humphrey, 1997. "Efficiency of financial institutions: international survey and directions for future research," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1997-11, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  7. Kwark, Noh-Sun, 2002. "Default risks, interest rate spreads, and business cycles: Explaining the interest rate spread as a leading indicator," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 271-302, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Robert Townsend, 1979. "Optimal contracts and competitive markets with costly state verification," Staff Report 45, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
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  13. Hancock, Diana, 1985. "The Financial Firm: Production with Monetary and Nonmonetary Goods," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(5), pages 859-80, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  18. Leland, Hayne E & Pyle, David H, 1977. "Informational Asymmetries, Financial Structure, and Financial Intermediation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 32(2), pages 371-87, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  19. Diewert, W E, 1974. "Intertemporal Consumer Theory and the Demand for Durables," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 42(3), pages 497-516, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. Andew Cohen & Michael Mazzeo, 2004. "Market structure and competition among retail depository institutions," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2004-04, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  21. Ramakrishnan, Ram T S & Thakor, Anjan V, 1984. "Information Reliability and a Theory of Financial Intermediation," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 51(3), pages 415-32, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  22. J. Christina Wang, 2003. "Loanable funds, risk, and bank service output," Working Papers 03-4, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston. [Downloadable!]
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  1. Aled ab Iorwerth, 2006. "How to Measure Government Productivity: A Review Article on 'Measurement of Government Output and Productivity for the National Accounts' (The Atkinson Report)," International Productivity Monitor, Centre for the Study of Living Standards, vol. 13, pages 57-74, Fall. [Downloadable!]
  2. Max Gillman & Mark N Harris & Michal Kejak, 2007. "The Interaction of Inflation and Financial Development with Endogenous Growth," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 29, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
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