Trading institutions and price discovery: the cash and futures markets for crude oil
AbstractWe provide substantial evidence that the futures market for West Texas Intermediate crude oil increased the short-term volatility of the cash price of crude oil. We show that the variability of prices increased using both published posted prices and transaction prices for producers. This increased volatility in the price of crude oil may reflect information aggregated into the price, an increase the variance of shocks to the price of crude oil, or noise in the futures price that affects the cash price. We present evidence from experiments consistent with the interpretation that information aggregation not feasible in a posted-price market can explain at least part of the increase in variance. This evidence supports the proposition that information not previously aggregated into the cash price for crude oil is at least part of the reason for the greater variability of the cash price after the opening of the futures market and provides at least one example in which a futures market increased the volatility of the cash market, and prices became more efficient.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta in its series Working Paper with number 2004-28.
Date of creation: 2004
Date of revision:
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2005-05-23 (All new papers)
- NEP-ENE-2005-05-23 (Energy Economics)
- NEP-EXP-2005-05-23 (Experimental Economics)
- NEP-FIN-2005-05-23 (Finance)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Eduardo Schwartz & James E. Smith, 2000. "Short-Term Variations and Long-Term Dynamics in Commodity Prices," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 46(7), pages 893-911, July.
- Krogmeier, Joseph L. & Menkhaus, Dale J. & Phillips, Owen R. & Schmitz, John D., 1997. "An Experimental Economics Approach To Analyzing Price Discovery In Forward And Spot Markets," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 29(02), December.
- Miller, Ross M & Plott, Charles R & Smith, Vernon L, 1977.
"Intertemporal Competitive Equilibrium: An Empirical Study of Speculation,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
MIT Press, vol. 91(4), pages 599-624, November.
- Miller, R. M. & Plott, Charles R. & Smith, Vernon L., . "Intertemporal Competitive Equilibrium: An Empirical Study of Speculation," Working Papers 87, California Institute of Technology, Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences.
- Douglas D. Davis & Charles A. Holt, 1996. "Price rigidities and institutional variations in markets with posted prices (*)," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 9(1), pages 63-80.
- Jamison, Julian C. & Plott, Charles R., 1997. "Costly offers and the equilibration properties of the multiple unit double auction under conditions of unpredictable shifts of demand and supply," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 591-612, April.
- Sunder, S., 1992. "Experimental Asset Markets: A Survey," GSIA Working Papers 1992-19, Carnegie Mellon University, Tepper School of Business.
- Kyle, Albert S, 1985. "Continuous Auctions and Insider Trading," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(6), pages 1315-35, November.
- Jeremy Clark, 2002. "House Money Effects in Public Good Experiments," Experimental Economics, Springer, vol. 5(3), pages 223-231, December.
- Plott, Charles R. & Smith, Vernon L., .
"An Experimental Examination of Two Exchange Institutions,"
83, California Institute of Technology, Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences.
- Plott, Charles R & Smith, Vernon L, 1978. "An Experimental Examination of Two Exchange Institutions," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(1), pages 133-53, February.
- Lucas, Robert Jr., 1972. "Expectations and the neutrality of money," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 103-124, April.
- Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-54, May-June.
- Friedman, Daniel & Harrison, Glenn W & Salmon, Jon W, 1984. "The Informational Efficiency of Experimental Asset Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 92(3), pages 349-408, June.
- Mark Bils & Peter J. Klenow, 2002.
"Some Evidence on the Importance of Sticky Prices,"
NBER Working Papers
9069, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Davis, Douglas D. & Harrison, Glenn W. & Williams, Arlington W., 1993. "Convergence to nonstationary competitive equilibria : An experimental analysis," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 305-326, December.
- Forsythe, Robert & Palfrey, Thomas R & Plott, Charles R, 1984. " Futures Markets and Informational Efficiency: A Laboratory Examination," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(4), pages 955-81, September.
- Harrison, J. Michael & Kreps, David M., 1979. "Martingales and arbitrage in multiperiod securities markets," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 381-408, June.
- Smith, James L., 2002. "Oil and the economy: introduction," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 163-168.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Meredith Rector).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.