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Housing Market Developments in Cyprus

Author

Listed:
  • Leonor Coutinho
  • Julien Castiaux
  • Jean-Charles Bricongne
  • Nicolas Philiponnet

Abstract

This study analyses demand, supply and price developments in Cyprus, in the run-up to its banking crisis and the early years of the recovery, analysing also new information on prices in levels. It further looks into alternative models to forecast house price inflation in Cyprus taking into account particular country characteristics and developments. Although there are many difficulties with this exercise, related to data availability, this analysis constitutes a first step in creating a database of relevant data and understanding the empirical correlation between potential explanatory variables and house prices trends. There appears to be a correlation between house prices and purchasing capacity, deposits, foreign sales, housing stocks, and NPLs. The presence of higher NPLs in particular appears to drag house prices down. High NPLs not only indicate credit tightening, but they also reflect pressure on households and businesses for real estate asset disposal as a mean to assist deleveraging, and therefore an ensuing increase in real estate supply.

Suggested Citation

  • Leonor Coutinho & Julien Castiaux & Jean-Charles Bricongne & Nicolas Philiponnet, 2018. "Housing Market Developments in Cyprus," European Economy - Economic Briefs 038, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    • Handle: RePEc:euf:ecobri:038
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    File URL: https://ec.europa.eu/info/sites/info/files/economy-finance/eb038_en.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Eurosystem Household Finance and Consumption Network, 2013. "The Eurosystem Household Finance and Consumption Survey - Methodological report," Statistics Paper Series 1, European Central Bank.
    3. Muellbauer, John & Murphy, Anthony, 1997. "Booms and Busts in the UK Housing Market," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 107(445), pages 1701-1727, November.
    4. Mr. Plamen K Iossifov & Mr. Martin Cihak & Amar Shanghavi, 2008. "Interest Rate Elasticity of Residential Housing Prices," IMF Working Papers 2008/247, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Michael Haliassos & Pany Karamanou & Constantinos Ktoris & George Syrichas, 2008. "Mortgage Debt, Social Customs and Financial Innovation," Working Papers 2008-2, Central Bank of Cyprus.
    6. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
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    Cited by:

    1. Alola, Andrew & Asongu, Simplice & Alola, Uju, 2019. "House prices and tourism development in Cyprus: A contemporary perspective," MPRA Paper 101795, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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