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Impact of Exchange Rate Shocks on Japanese Exports: Quantitative assessment using a structural VAR model

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  • IWAISAKO Tokuo
  • NAKATA Hayato

Abstract

In the policy debate over the Japanese macroeconomic performance, the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on Japan's exports has received considerable attention. However, if we take the period from the end of 2008 following the collapse of Lehman Brothers as an example, the "price shock" of the yen's rapid appreciation and the "quantity shock" because of the rapid decline in global aggregate demand were equally responsible for the significant reduction in exports. We analyze this problem using a structural vector autoregression (VAR) model, assuming that there are two exogenous shocks, namely, a foreign demand shock and an exchange rate-specific shock. We evaluate the relative importance of each shock to Japanese aggregate exports. We further expand our VAR system to incorporate and analyze the impact of fluctuations in oil prices as additional exogenous shocks. In the second half of the paper, the relative importance of foreign demand shocks and exchange rate shocks during historic episodes of large exchange rate fluctuations are compared, including the mid-1980s with the high-yen recession after the Plaza Accord, the sharp yen appreciation in the mid-1990s, and the period of the "trade collapse" after the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy in the late 2000s.

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  • IWAISAKO Tokuo & NAKATA Hayato, 2015. "Impact of Exchange Rate Shocks on Japanese Exports: Quantitative assessment using a structural VAR model," Discussion papers 15029, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
  • Handle: RePEc:eti:dpaper:15029
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    1. IWAISAKO Tokuo & NAKATA Hayato, 2014. "Impact of Exchange Rate Shocks on Japanese Exports: Quantitative assessment using the structural VAR model (Japanese)," Discussion Papers (Japanese) 14051, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    2. Lutz Kilian, 2009. "Not All Oil Price Shocks Are Alike: Disentangling Demand and Supply Shocks in the Crude Oil Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(3), pages 1053-1069, June.
    3. Lutz Kilian & Cheolbeom Park, 2009. "The Impact Of Oil Price Shocks On The U.S. Stock Market," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 50(4), pages 1267-1287, November.
    4. Ichiro Fukunaga & Naohisa Hirakata & Nao Sudo, 2011. "The Effects of Oil Price Changes on the Industry-Level Production and Prices in the United States and Japan," NBER Chapters, in: Commodity Prices and Markets, pages 195-231, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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