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Estimating critical mass in the global cellular telephony market

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Author Info

  • Michal Grajek

    (ESMT European School of Management and Technology)

  • Tobias Kretschmer

    (Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München)

Abstract

Critical Mass is a common feature of technology diffusion processes. We develop a structural model of demand with network effects to provide a rigorous definition of critical mass as a function of installed base, price and network effects. Using data from the digital cellular telephony market, we identify critical mass phenomena and find that differences in the critical mass point in different countries rest mainly on different countries’ socioeconomic characteristics and the extent of competition in a country. This application illustrates that our demand model can be operationalized easily and can generate theoretically grounded empirical insights about critical mass phenomena.

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File URL: http://static.esmt.org/publications/workingpapers/ESMT-08-004_R1.pdf
File Function: Revised version, 2010
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by ESMT European School of Management and Technology in its series ESMT Research Working Papers with number ESMT-08-004 (R1).

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Length: 44 pages
Date of creation: 13 Jun 2008
Date of revision: 15 Apr 2010
Publication status: Published in International Journal of Industrial Organization 30(6): 496–507.
Handle: RePEc:esm:wpaper:esmt-08-004

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Keywords: critical mass; network effects; technology diffusion; cellular telephony;

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References

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  1. Michal Grajek & Tobias Kretschmer, 2006. "Usage and Diffusion of Cellular Telephony, 1998-2004," Working Papers 06-21, NET Institute, revised Oct 2006.
  2. Grajek, Michal, 2010. "Estimating network effects and compatibility: Evidence from the Polish mobile market," Information Economics and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 130-143, May.
  3. van den Bulte, C. & Stremersch, S., 2003. "Contagion and heterogeneity in new product diffusion: An emperical test," ERIM Report Series Research in Management ERS-2003-077-MKT, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus Uni.
  4. Peter N. Golder & Gerard J. Tellis, 1997. "Will It Every Fly? Modeling the Takeoff of Really New Consumer Durables," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 16(3), pages 256-270.
  5. Wesley Hartmann & Puneet Manchanda & Harikesh Nair & Matthew Bothner & Peter Dodds & David Godes & Kartik Hosanagar & Catherine Tucker, 2008. "Modeling social interactions: Identification, empirical methods and policy implications," Marketing Letters, Springer, vol. 19(3), pages 287-304, December.
  6. Tobias Kretschmer, 2008. "SPLINTERING AND INERTIA IN NETWORK INDUSTRIES -super-* ," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 56(4), pages 685-706, December.
  7. Heli Koski & Tobias Kretschmer, 2005. "Entry, standards and competition : firm strategies and the diffusion of mobile telephony," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 801, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  8. Cantillon, Estelle & Yin, Pai-Ling, 2008. "Competition between Exchanges: Lessons from the Battle of the Bund," CEPR Discussion Papers 6923, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  9. Heli Koski & Tobias Kretschmer, 2004. "Survey on Competing in Network Industries: Firm Strategies, Market Outcomes, and Policy Implications," Journal of Industry, Competition and Trade, Springer, vol. 4(1), pages 5-31, 03.
  10. Gautam Gowrisankaran & Joanna Stavins, 2004. "Network Externalities and Technology Adoption: Lessons from Electronic Payments," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 35(2), pages 260-276, Summer.
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Cited by:
  1. Nina Czernich, 2011. "The emergence of broadband internet and consequences for economic and social development," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 37.

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