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Did the Global Financial Crisis and Recession Contribute to the Uprisings in North Africa?

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  • Hassan Aly

    (The Ohio State University, USA)

  • Mark Strazicich

Abstract

In this paper, we utilize time series tests with structural breaks to test for evidence of an adverse impact on economic growth rates in North African countries following the 2007-2009 global financial crisis and recession. One or two structural breaks in economic growth are identified in each country, except for Morocco where no break is found. However, breaks that coincide with the financial crisis are found in only two of the six countries (Libya and Mauritania), while other breaks coincide most often with earlier U.S. or EU recessions. To further examine the impact of shocks, impulse response functions are estimated from VAR models with structural breaks. We again find no evidence that shocks from the recent financial crisis will have a significant impact on economic growth in North Africa. We conclude that shocks from the 2007-2009 global economic crisis will have only temporary effects on economic growth rates in North Africa and are likely not a main factor to explain the uprisings in 2011.

Suggested Citation

  • Hassan Aly & Mark Strazicich, 2011. "Did the Global Financial Crisis and Recession Contribute to the Uprisings in North Africa?," Working Papers 651, Economic Research Forum, revised 12 Jan 2011.
    • Handle: RePEc:erg:wpaper:651
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Lee, Junsoo & Strazicich, Mark C, 2001. "Break Point Estimation and Spurious Rejections with Endogenous Unit Root Tests," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 63(5), pages 535-558, December.
    2. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November.
    3. Junsoo Lee & Mark C. Strazicich, 2003. "Minimum Lagrange Multiplier Unit Root Test with Two Structural Breaks," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(4), pages 1082-1089, November.
    4. Junsoo Lee & Mark C. Strazicich, 2001. "Break Point Estimation and Spurious Rejections With Endogenous Unit Root Tests," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 63(5), pages 535-558, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Alessandro Galli & Martin Halle, 2014. "Mounting Debt in a World in Overshoot: An Analysis of the Link between the Mediterranean Region’s Economic and Ecological Crises," Resources, MDPI, vol. 3(2), pages 1-12, March.

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