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Real indeterminacy and the timing of money in open economies

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  • Stephen McKnight

    ()
    (El Colegio de México)

Abstract

Should central banks target producer price inflation or consumer price inflation in the setting of monetary policy? Previous studies suggest that in order to avoid real indeterminacy and self-fulfilling fluctuations, the interest rate rule for open economies should react to producer price inflation. However, as this paper shows, the preference towards a particular inflation index crucially depends upon the timing assumption on money employed in the determinacy analysis. This timing assumption importantly determines the transactions-facilitating services of money. It is shown that the conclusions of the existing literature, that advocate targeting producer price inflation, is a by-product of adopting end-of-period timing, i.e. what matters for transactions purposes is the money one leaves the goods market with. However, we find that the conditions for equilibrium determinacy change significantly once cash-in-advance timing is adopted, i.e. what matters for current transactions is the money one enters the goods market with. Thus in stark contrast to previous studies, we show that under cash-in-advance timing, targeting consumer price inflation is preferable to targeting producer price inflation in preventing self-fulfilling expectations.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by El Colegio de México, Centro de Estudios Económicos in its series Serie documentos de trabajo del Centro de Estudios Económicos with number 2011-01.

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Date of creation: Mar 2011
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Handle: RePEc:emx:ceedoc:2011-01

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Web page: http://www.colmex.mx/centros/cee/
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Keywords: real indeterminacy; open economy monetary models; trade openness; interest rate rules;

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  1. Batini, Nicoletta & Levine, Paul & Pearlman, Joseph G., 2004. "Indeterminacy with inflation-forecast-based rules in a two-bloc model," Working Paper Series 0340, European Central Bank.
  2. Galí, Jordi & Gertler, Mark & Lopez-Salido, Jose David, 2002. "Markups, Gaps and the Welfare Costs of Business Fluctuations," CEPR Discussion Papers 3212, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Charles T. Carlstrom & Timothy S. Fuerst, 2003. "Investment and interest rate policy: a discrete time analysis," Working Paper 0320, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  4. Clarida, Richard & Galí, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1998. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory," CEPR Discussion Papers 1908, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. Clarida, Richard & Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 2002. "A simple framework for international monetary policy analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(5), pages 879-904, July.
  6. Ben S. Bernanke & Michael Woodford, 1997. "Inflation forecasts and monetary policy," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, pages 653-686.
  7. Pierpaolo Benigno, 2008. "Price stability with imperfect financial integration," Proceedings, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  8. Cooley, T.F. & Hansen, G.D., 1988. "The Inflation Tax In A Real Business Cycle Model," Papers 88-05, Rochester, Business - General.
  9. Charles T. Carlstrom & Timothy S. Fuerst, 2001. "Timing and real indeterminacy in monetary models," Working Paper 9910R, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  10. Luis-Felipe Zanna, 2003. "Interest rate rules and multiple equilibria in the small open economy," International Finance Discussion Papers 785, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  11. Charles T. Carlstrom & Timothy S. Fuerst, 2000. "Forward-looking versus backward-looking Taylor rules," Working Paper 0009, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  12. De Fiore, Fiorella & Liu, Zheng, 2005. "Does trade openness matter for aggregate instability?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(7), pages 1165-1192, July.
  13. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
  14. Kollmann, Robert, 2003. "Monetary Policy Rules in an Interdependent World," CEPR Discussion Papers 4012, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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Cited by:
  1. Stephen McKnight, 2011. "Investment and interest rate policy in the open economy," Serie documentos de trabajo del Centro de Estudios Económicos 2011-02, El Colegio de México, Centro de Estudios Económicos.
  2. Fujisaki, Seiya, 2012. "Interest Rate Control Rules and Macroeconomic Stability in a Heterogeneous Two-Country Model," MPRA Paper 37017, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. repec:rdg:wpaper:em-dp2007-52 is not listed on IDEAS
  4. Fujisaki, Seiya, 2013. "Taylor rules and equilibrium determinacy in a two-country model with non-traded goods," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 597-603.
  5. Stephen McKnight & Alexander Mihailov, 2007. "Re-examining the Importance of Trade Openness for Aggregate Instability," Economic Analysis Research Group Working Papers earg-wp2007-12, Henley Business School, Reading University.
  6. Fujisaki, Seiya, 2012. "Taylor rules and equilibrium determinacy in a two-country model with non-traded goods," MPRA Paper 40023, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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