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A Model for Evaluating Pharmaceutical R&D Investment Projects under Technical and Economic Uncertainties

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  • Pennings, H.P.G.
  • Sereno, L.

Abstract

This study sets up a compound option approach for evaluating pharmaceutical R&D investment projects in the presence of technical and economic uncertainties. Technical uncertainty is modeled as a Poisson jump that allows for failure and thus abandonment of the drug development. Economic uncertainty is modeled as a standard di¤usion process which incorporates both up-and downward shocks. Practical application of this method is emphasized through a case analysis. We show that both uncertainties have a positive impact on the R&D option value. Moreover, from the sensitivity analysis, we nd that the sensitivity of the option with respect to economic uncertainty and market introduction cost decreases when technical uncertainty increases.

Suggested Citation

  • Pennings, H.P.G. & Sereno, L., 2010. "A Model for Evaluating Pharmaceutical R&D Investment Projects under Technical and Economic Uncertainties," ERIM Report Series Research in Management ERS-2010-009-STR, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam.
    • Handle: RePEc:ems:eureri:18211
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    7. Pennings, Enrico & Lint, Onno, 1997. "The option value of advanced R & D," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 103(1), pages 83-94, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Kwee, Z. & van den Bosch, F.A.J. & Volberda, H.W., 2010. "The Influence of Top Management Team’s Corporate Governance Orientation on Strategic Renewal Trajectories," ERIM Report Series Research in Management ERS-2010-032-STR, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam.
    2. Ghosh, Suvankar & Troutt, Marvin D., 2012. "Complex compound option models – Can practitioners truly operationalize them?," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 222(3), pages 542-552.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    G13; G24; G30; R&D; compound option; jump-discussion process; pharmaceutical industry;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C6 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling
    • D21 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Theory
    • L20 - Industrial Organization - - Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior - - - General
    • M - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics
    • O32 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Management of Technological Innovation and R&D

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