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Global Tactical Cross-Asset Allocation: Applying Value and Momentum Across Asset Classes

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  • Blitz, D.C.
  • van Vliet, P.

Abstract

In this paper we examine global tactical asset allocation (GTAA) strategies across a broad range of asset classes. Contrary to market timing for single asset classes and tactical allocation across similar assets, this topic has received little attention in the existing literature. Our main finding is that momentum and value strategies applied to GTAA across twelve asset classes deliver statistically and economically significant abnormal returns. For a long top-quartile and short bottom-quartile portfolio based on a combination of momentum and value signals we find a return of 12% per annum over the 1986-2007 period. Performance is stable over time, also present in an out-of-sample period and sufficiently high to overcome transaction costs in practice. The return cannot be explained by potential structural biases towards asset classes with high risk premiums, nor the Fama French and Carhart hedge factors. We argue that financial markets may be macro inefficient due to insufficient ‘smart money’ being available to arbitrage mispricing effects away.

Suggested Citation

  • Blitz, D.C. & van Vliet, P., 2008. "Global Tactical Cross-Asset Allocation: Applying Value and Momentum Across Asset Classes," ERIM Report Series Research in Management ERS-2008-033-F&A, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam.
    • Handle: RePEc:ems:eureri:12598
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Richards, Anthony J, 1997. "Winner-Loser Reversals in National Stock Market Indices: Can They Be Explained?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(5), pages 2129-2144, December.
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    3. Fama, Eugene F & Bliss, Robert R, 1987. "The Information in Long-Maturity Forward Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(4), pages 680-692, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Angelidis, Timotheos & Tessaromatis, Nikolaos, 2014. "Global Style Portfolios Based on Country Indices," MPRA Paper 53094, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Dr. Humberto Valencia Herrera, 2015. "Decomposition of the Stocks Returns in the Sustainable Index of the Mexican Stock Exchange," Remef - The Mexican Journal of Economics and Finance, Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de Finanzas. Remef, March.
    3. Nafeesa Yunus, 2016. "Modelling interactions among the housing market and key US sectors," Journal of Property Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(2), pages 121-146, April.
    4. Zaremba, Adam & Umutlu, Mehmet & Karathanasopoulos, Andreas, 2019. "Alpha momentum and alpha reversal in country and industry equity indexes," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 144-161.
    5. Tse, Yiuman, 2015. "Momentum strategies with stock index exchange-traded funds," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 134-148.
    6. Carmine De Franco & Johann Nicolle & Huyên Pham, 2019. "Dealing with Drift Uncertainty: A Bayesian Learning Approach," Risks, MDPI, vol. 7(1), pages 1-18, January.
    7. Adam Zaremba, 2019. "The Cross Section of Country Equity Returns: A Review of Empirical Literature," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-26, October.
    8. Zaremba, Adam & Long, Huaigang & Karathanasopoulos, Andreas, 2019. "Short-term momentum (almost) everywhere," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    9. Stephan Kessler & Bernd Scherer, 2013. "Momentum and macroeconomic state variables," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 27(4), pages 335-363, December.
    10. Long, Huaigang & Zaremba, Adam & Zhou, Wenyu & Bouri, Elie, 2022. "Macroeconomics matter: Leading economic indicators and the cross-section of global stock returns," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    11. Kees G. Koedijk & Alfred M.H. Slager & Philip A. Stork, 2016. "Investing in Systematic Factor Premiums," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 22(2), pages 193-234, March.
    12. Adam Zaremba & Jacob Koby Shemer, 2018. "Price-Based Investment Strategies," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-3-319-91530-2, June.
    13. Achim Backhaus & Aliya Zhakanova Isiksal & Matthias Bausch, 2022. "What Financial Conditions Affect Dynamic Equity Risk Factor Allocation?," Economies, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-21, February.
    14. Zaremba, Adam & Szyszka, Adam & Karathanasopoulos, Andreas & Mikutowski, Mateusz, 2021. "Herding for profits: Market breadth and the cross-section of global equity returns," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 348-364.
    15. Bruce Vanstone & Tobias Hahn & Dean Earea, 2021. "Industry momentum: an exchange‐traded funds approach," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 61(3), pages 4007-4024, September.
    16. Stephen A. Gorman & Frank J. Fabozzi, 2021. "The ABC’s of the alternative risk premium: academic roots," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 22(6), pages 405-436, October.
    17. Zura Kakushadze & Juan Andrés Serur, 2018. "151 Trading Strategies," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-3-030-02792-6, June.
    18. Zaremba, Adam & Umutlu, Mehmet, 2018. "Size matters everywhere: Decomposing the small country and small industry premia," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 1-18.
    19. Hubert Dichtl, 2020. "Investing in the S&P 500 index: Can anything beat the buy‐and‐hold strategy?," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(2), pages 352-378, April.
    20. Umutlu, Mehmet & Bengitöz, Pelin, 2020. "The cross-section of industry equity returns and global tactical asset allocation across regions and industries," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    21. Zaremba, Adam, 2019. "Price range and the cross-section of expected country and industry returns," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 174-189.
    22. Dichtl, Hubert & Drobetz, Wolfgang, 2014. "Are stock markets really so inefficient? The case of the “Halloween Indicator”," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 112-121.
    23. Bradley Jones, 2015. "Asset Bubbles: Re-thinking Policy for the Age of Asset Management," IMF Working Papers 2015/027, International Monetary Fund.
    24. Zaremba, Adam & Cakici, Nusret & Bianchi, Robert J. & Long, Huaigang, 2023. "Interest rate changes and the cross-section of global equity returns," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    25. Humberto Valencia Herrera, 2015. "Decomposition of the Stocks Returns in the Sustainable Index of the Mexican Stock Exchange," Remef - Revista Mexicana de Economía y Finanzas Nueva Época REMEF (The Mexican Journal of Economics and Finance), Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de Finanzas, IMEF, vol. 10(1), pages 85-99, Enero-Jun.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    GTAA; global asset allocation; momentum; value effect;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G3 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance
    • M - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics

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