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Stability through cycles

Author

Listed:
  • de Groot, E.A.
  • Franses, Ph.H.B.F.

Abstract

Economic variables like GDP growth, employment, interest rates and consumption show signs of cyclical behavior. Many variables display multiple cycles, with lengths ranging in between 5 to even up to 100 years. We argue that multiple cycles can be associated with long-run stability of the economic system, provided that the cycle lengths are such that interference is rare or absent. For a large sample of important variables, including key variables for the US, UK and the Netherlands, we document that this is indeed the case.

Suggested Citation

  • de Groot, E.A. & Franses, Ph.H.B.F., 2006. "Stability through cycles," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2006-07, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:ems:eureir:7666
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Freeman, Chris & Louca, Francisco, 2002. "As Time Goes By: From the Industrial Revolutions to the Information Revolution," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199251056.
    2. Gerald Silverberg & Bart Verspagen, 2003. "Breaking the waves: a Poisson regression approach to Schumpeterian clustering of basic innovations," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 27(5), pages 671-693, September.
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    4. Francisco Louçã & Jan Reijnders (ed.), 1999. "The Foundations of Long Wave Theory," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, volume 0, number 1516.
    5. Jan Reijnders, 1990. "Long Waves in Economic Development," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 366.
    6. de Groot, E.A. & Franses, Ph.H.B.F., 2005. "Cycles in basic innovations," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2005-35, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fibonacci; business cycles; economic stability; long waves;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

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