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Breaking the waves: a Poisson regression approach to Schumpeterian clustering of basic innovations

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Author Info
Gerald Silverberg
Bart Verspagen

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Abstract

The Schumpeterian theory of long waves has given rise to an intense debate on the existence of clusters of basic innovations. Silverberg and Lehnert have criticised the empirical part of this literature on several methodological accounts. In this paper, we propose the methodology of Poisson regression as a logical way of incorporating this criticism. We construct a new time series for basic innovations (based on previously used time series), and use this to test the hypothesis that basic innovations cluster in time. We define the concept of clustering in various precise ways before undertaking the statistical tests. The evidence we find supports only the 'weakest' of our clustering hypotheses, i.e., that the data display overdispersion. We thus conclude that the authors who have argued that a long wave in economic life is driven by clusters of basic innovations have stretched the statistical evidence too far. Copyright 2003, Oxford University Press.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Oxford University Press in its journal Cambridge Journal of Economics.

Volume (Year): 27 (2003)
Issue (Month): 5 (September)
Pages: 671-693
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Handle: RePEc:oup:cambje:v:27:y:2003:i:5:p:671-693

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Gordon, Robert J, 2000. "Does the 'New Economy' Measure up to the Great Inventions of the Past?," CEPR Discussion Papers 2607, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Cincera, Michele, 1997. "Patents, R&D, and Technological Spillovers at the Firm Level: Some Evidence from Econometric Count Models for Panel Data," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(3), pages 265-80, May-June. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. ten Raa, Thijs & Wolff, Edward N., 2000. "Engines of growth in the US economy," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 473-489, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Jerry A. Hausman & Bronwyn H. Hall & Zvi Griliches, 1984. "Econometric Models for Count Data with an Application to the Patents-R&D Relationship," NBER Technical Working Papers 0017, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Crepon, Bruno & Duguet, Emmanuel, 1997. "Estimating the Innovation Function from Patent Numbers: GMM on Count Panel Data," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(3), pages 243-63, May-June. [Downloadable!]
  6. Chris Freeman & Luc Soete, 1997. "The Economics of Industrial Innovation, 3rd Edition," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 3, volume 1, number 0262061953, January.
  7. Silverberg, Gerald & Lehnert, Doris, 1993. "Long waves and 'evolutionary chaos' in a simple Schumpeterian model of embodied technical change," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 9-37, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Kleinknecht, Alfred, 1990. "Are There Schumpeterian Waves of Innovations?," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 14(1), pages 81-92, March.
  9. Crepon, Bruno & Duguet, Emmanuel, 1997. "Research and development, competition and innovation pseudo-maximum likelihood and simulated maximum likelihood methods applied to count data models with heterogeneity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 79(2), pages 355-378, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Solomou, Solomos, 1986. "Innovation Clusters and Kondratieff Long Waves in Economic Growth," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 10(2), pages 101-12, June.
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Aken, van J.E., 2001. "Management research based on the paradigm of the design sciences: the quest for tested and grounded technological rules," ECIS Working Papers 01.11, Eindhoven Centre for Innovation Studies, Eindhoven University of Technology. [Downloadable!]
  2. Silverberg,Gerald & Verspagen,Bart, 2005. "Self-organization of R&D search in complex technology spaces," Research Memoranda 015, Maastricht : MERIT, Maastricht Economic Research Institute on Innovation and Technology. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Silverberg,Gerald & Verspagen,Bart, 2002. "A Percolation Model of Innovation in Complex Technology," Research Memoranda 032, Maastricht : MERIT, Maastricht Economic Research Institute on Innovation and Technology. [Downloadable!]
  4. Silverberg,Gerald, 2003. "Long Waves: Conceptual, Empirical and Modelling Issues," Research Memoranda 015, Maastricht : MERIT, Maastricht Economic Research Institute on Innovation and Technology. [Downloadable!]
  5. Aken, van J., 2001. "Improving the relevance of management research By developing tested and grounded technologiCAL RULES," ECIS Working Papers 01.19, Eindhoven Centre for Innovation Studies, Eindhoven University of Technology. [Downloadable!]
  6. Giulio Bottazzi & Angelo Secchi, 2005. "Explaining the Distribution of Firms Growth Rates," LEM Papers Series 2005/16, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Nuvolari, A. & Verspagen, B. & Von Tunzelmann, N., 2003. "The Diffusion of the Steam Engine in Eighteenth-Century Britain," ECIS Working Papers 03.26, Eindhoven Centre for Innovation Studies, Eindhoven University of Technology. [Downloadable!]
  8. Silverberg,Gerald, 2005. "When is a Wave a Wave? Long Waves as Empirical and Theoretical Constructs from a Complex Systems Perspective," Research Memoranda 014, Maastricht : MERIT, Maastricht Economic Research Institute on Innovation and Technology. [Downloadable!]
  9. Jan Fagerberg & Bart Verspagen, 2001. "Technology-Gaps, Innovation-Diffusion And Transformation: An Evolutionary Interpretation," Working Papers 11, Centre for Technology, Innovation and Culture, University of Oslo. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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