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Central Bank Intervention, Bubbles and Risk in Walrasian Financial Markets

Author

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  • Chang, C-L.
  • Ilomäki, J.
  • Laurila, H.
  • McAleer, M.J.

Abstract

The paper investigates the effects of central bank interventions in financial markets, composed of asymmetrically-informed rational investors and noise traders. If the central bank suspects a bubble, it should lift the real risk-free rate to deflate the bubble in “leaning against the wind”. A rise in the real risk-free rate reduces the risk of rational informed investors, and increases the risk of rational uninformed investors. If the central bank intervenes through the nominal risk-free rate and the Fisher arbitrage condition holds, an increase in the nominal rate is transferred to inflation, thereby dampening the policy effect. Conversely, this implies that the central bank can also deflate the bubble by inducing a reduction in inflationary expectations. The effect on the informed investor risk remains ambiguous, while the risk of he uninformed investor grows, but only if they suffer from money illusion.

Suggested Citation

  • Chang, C-L. & Ilomäki, J. & Laurila, H. & McAleer, M.J., 2019. "Central Bank Intervention, Bubbles and Risk in Walrasian Financial Markets," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI2019-07, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:ems:eureir:115605
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Hannu Laurila & Jukka Ilomäki, 2020. "Inflation and Risky Investments," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(12), pages 1-10, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Central bank intervention; asymmetric information; rational investors; noise traders; bubbles; risk-free rate; Fisherian arbitrage; inflation; expectations; money illusion;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D82 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

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