Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Macroeconomics and politics in the accumulation of Greece’s debt: an econometric investigation, 1975-2009

Contents:

Author Info

  • George Alogoskoufis
Registered author(s):

    Abstract

    This paper focuses on an econometric investigation of the macroeconomic and political factors that contributed to Greece’s excessive debt accumulation and its failure to adequately address its fiscal imbalances, from the restoration of democracy in 1974 till the crisis of 2009. The econometric investigation is based on a model in which two political parties alternate in power, and in which governments choose primary expenditure and taxes to minimize deviations from politically determined expenditure and tax targets, subject to a debt accumulation equation. The model predicts a political equilibrium in which primary expenditure and taxes follow feedback rules which go in the direction of stabilizing the debt to GDP ratio. However, this stabilization incentive is weaker in election years. The model also predicts potential partisan differences in the evolution of primary expenditure and taxes, due to the different preferences of political parties. Estimates of government reaction functions to public debt for the period 1975-2009 suggest a rather weak stabilizing reaction of primary deficits to public debt. This stabilizing reaction disappears in election years, which are characterized by strong fiscal expansions. We find no evidence of partisan differences in the reaction of primary deficits to inherited debt, but we do find evidence of lower primary deficits in the post-1992 Maastricht treaty period. Overall the model accounts for the accumulation of Greece’s government debt in terms of the trend increase in primary expenditure, the positive shocks to primary expenditure in election years and the weak stabilizing reaction of government revenue, due to tax smoothing.

    Download Info

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
    File URL: http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/50257/
    File Function: Open access version.
    Download Restriction: no

    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library in its series LSE Research Online Documents on Economics with number 50257.

    as in new window
    Length: 53 pages
    Date of creation: Mar 2013
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:50257

    Contact details of provider:
    Postal: LSE Library Portugal Street London, WC2A 2HD, U.K.
    Phone: +44 (020) 7405 7686
    Web page: http://www.lse.ac.uk/
    More information through EDIRC

    Related research

    Keywords:

    Find related papers by JEL classification:

    References

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
    as in new window
    1. Yannis Valinakis, 2012. "Greece’s European Policy Making," GreeSE – Hellenic Observatory Papers on Greece and Southeast Europe 63, Hellenic Observatory, LSE.
    2. Stella Ladi, 2012. "The Eurozone Crisis and Austerity Politics: A Trigger for Administrative Reform in Greece?," GreeSE – Hellenic Observatory Papers on Greece and Southeast Europe 57, Hellenic Observatory, LSE.
    3. Anagnostopoulos, Achilleas & Siebert, W. Stanley, 2012. "The Impact of Greek Labour Market Regulation on Temporary and Family Employment: Evidence from a New Survey," IZA Discussion Papers 6504, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    4. Christos Lyrintzis, 2011. "Greek Politics in the Era of Economic Crisis: Reassessing Causes and Effects," GreeSE – Hellenic Observatory Papers on Greece and Southeast Europe 45, Hellenic Observatory, LSE.
    5. Melina Skouroliakou, 2012. "The Communication Factor in Greek Foreign Policy: An Analysis," GreeSE – Hellenic Observatory Papers on Greece and Southeast Europe 55, Hellenic Observatory, LSE.
    6. Nicholas Apergis, 2011. "Characteristics of inflation in Greece: mean spillover effects among CPI components," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 32597, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    7. Helen Caraveli & Efthymios G. Tsionas, 2012. "Economic Restructuring, Crises and the Regions: The Political Economy of Regional Inequalities in Greece," GreeSE – Hellenic Observatory Papers on Greece and Southeast Europe 61, Hellenic Observatory, LSE.
    8. Anastassios Chardas, 2012. "Multi-level governance and the application of the partnership principle in times of economic crisis in Greece," GreeSE – Hellenic Observatory Papers on Greece and Southeast Europe 56, Hellenic Observatory, LSE.
    9. George Alogoskoufis, 2012. "Greece’s Sovereign Debt Crisis: Retrospect and Prospect," GreeSE – Hellenic Observatory Papers on Greece and Southeast Europe 54, Hellenic Observatory, LSE.
    10. Nikos Chrysoloras, 2013. "Rebuilding eurozone's ground zero: a review of the Greek economic crisis," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 48254, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    11. Georgia Kaplanoglou & Vassilis T. Rapanos, 2011. "The Greek Fiscal Crisis and the Role of Fiscal Governance," GreeSE – Hellenic Observatory Papers on Greece and Southeast Europe 48, Hellenic Observatory, LSE.
    12. Christos Lyrintzis, 2011. "Greek politics in the era of economic crisis: reassessing causes and effects," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 33826, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    13. Nikos Chrysoloras, 2013. "Rebuilding Eurozone’s Ground Zero. A review of the Greek economic crisis," GreeSE – Hellenic Observatory Papers on Greece and Southeast Europe 66, Hellenic Observatory, LSE.
    14. Vassilis Monastiriotis & Yiannis Psycharis, 2011. "Without purpose and strategy? A spatio-functional analysis of the regional allocation of public investment in Greece," GreeSE – Hellenic Observatory Papers on Greece and Southeast Europe 49, Hellenic Observatory, LSE.
    15. Vassilis Monastiriotis & Yiannis Psycharis, 2011. "Without purpose and strategy?: a spatio-functional analysis of the regional allocation of public investment in Greece," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 38377, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    16. George Alogoskoufis, 2012. "Greece’s sovereign debt crisis: retrospect and prospect," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 42848, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    17. Spyros Skouras & Nicos Christodoulakis, 2011. "Electoral Misgovernance Cycles: Evidence from wildfires and tax evasion in Greece and elsewhere," GreeSE – Hellenic Observatory Papers on Greece and Southeast Europe 47, Hellenic Observatory, LSE.
    18. Nicos Christodoulakis, 2012. "Currency crisis and collapse in interwar Greece: Predicament or Policy Failure?," GreeSE – Hellenic Observatory Papers on Greece and Southeast Europe 60, Hellenic Observatory, LSE.
    19. Yannis Kechagiaras, 2012. "Why did Greece block the Euro-Atlantic integration of the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia? An Analysis of Greek Foreign Policy Behaviour Shifts," GreeSE – Hellenic Observatory Papers on Greece and Southeast Europe 58, Hellenic Observatory, LSE.
    20. Alexis Heraclides, 2011. "The Essence of the Greek-Turkish Rivalry: National Narrative and Identity," GreeSE – Hellenic Observatory Papers on Greece and Southeast Europe 51, Hellenic Observatory, LSE.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as in new window

    Cited by:
    1. Nick Papandreou, 2014. "Life in the First Person and the Art of Political Storytelling:The Rhetoric of Andreas Papandreou," GreeSE – Hellenic Observatory Papers on Greece and Southeast Europe 85, Hellenic Observatory, LSE.
    2. Spyros Kosmidis, 2013. "Government constraints and economic voting in Greece," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 50259, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.

    Lists

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:50257. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Lucy Ayre).

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.