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Are there any animal spirits behind the scenes of the Euro area sovereign debt crisis?

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  • Emmanuel Mamatzakis

Abstract

This paper reveals the underlying market’s preferences over the on going Euro area sovereign debt crisis. It builds on a loss function with reference to the ‘basis’, the difference between the spread over swap and Credit Default Swap (CDS) for sovereign bonds. This loss function is general and flexible as it nests both a lin-lin and quad-quad functional form. The sample covers those Euro area member states most at risk of default namely: Greece, Portugal, Ireland, Spain and Italy. Results show that market’s preferences for some Euro area countries, in particular Greece, have shifted towards pessimism post the Emergency Financing Mechanism (EFM) and troika. If anything, market’s reading of Euro area debt crisis points to the direction of serious misalignments post EFM and troika fuelled by growing pessimism and thus uncertainty. Having derived market’s preferences, we explore the impact of some specific market characteristics and fiscal rules and fiscal institutions on those preferences. Fiscal rules and institutions appear to improve market’s perception over fiscal sustainability, whilst the 3M Euribor, 3M Eurepo, outstanding debt to GDP, and iTraxx main investment grade index also shape market’s preferences.

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File URL: http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/50984/
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library in its series LSE Research Online Documents on Economics with number 50984.

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Length: 56 pages
Date of creation: Jul 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:50984

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References

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  1. Achilleas Anagnostopoulos & Stanley Siebert, 2012. "The impact of Greek labour market regulation on temporary and family employment - Evidence from a new survey," GreeSE – Hellenic Observatory Papers on Greece and Southeast Europe 62, Hellenic Observatory, LSE.
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  14. Georgia Kaplanoglou & Vassilis T. Rapanos, 2011. "The Greek Fiscal Crisis and the Role of Fiscal Governance," GreeSE – Hellenic Observatory Papers on Greece and Southeast Europe 48, Hellenic Observatory, LSE.
  15. Efi Vraniali, 2010. "Rethinking public financial management and budgeting in Greece: time to reboot?," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 29097, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  16. Christos Dimas, 2010. "Privatization in the Name of ‘Europe’: analyzing the telecoms privatization in Greece from a ‘discursive institutionalist’ perspective," GreeSE – Hellenic Observatory Papers on Greece and Southeast Europe 41, Hellenic Observatory, LSE.
  17. Julien Etienne, 2013. "Controlled negative reciprocity between the state and civil society: the Greek case," GreeSE – Hellenic Observatory Papers on Greece and Southeast Europe 71, Hellenic Observatory, LSE.
  18. Elias Katsikas & Theodore Panagiotidis, 2010. "Student Status and Academic Performance: an approach of the quality determinants of university studies in Greece," GreeSE – Hellenic Observatory Papers on Greece and Southeast Europe 40, Hellenic Observatory, LSE.
  19. Spyros Kosmidis, 2013. "Government Constraints and Economic Voting in Greece," GreeSE – Hellenic Observatory Papers on Greece and Southeast Europe 70, Hellenic Observatory, LSE.
  20. Dimitris Venieris, 2013. "Crisis Social Policy and Social Justice: the case for Greece," GreeSE – Hellenic Observatory Papers on Greece and Southeast Europe 69, Hellenic Observatory, LSE.
  21. Yannis Valinakis, 2012. "Greece’s European Policy Making," GreeSE – Hellenic Observatory Papers on Greece and Southeast Europe 63, Hellenic Observatory, LSE.
  22. Nicholas Apergis, 2011. "Characteristics of inflation in Greece: mean spillover effects among CPI components," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 32597, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  23. Horen Voskeritsian & Andreas Kornelakis, 2011. "Institutional change in Greek industrial relations in an era of fiscal crisis," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 41758, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
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  27. Efi Vraniali, 2010. "Rethinking Public Financial Management and Budgeting in Greece: time to reboot?," GreeSE – Hellenic Observatory Papers on Greece and Southeast Europe 37, Hellenic Observatory, LSE.
  28. Nikos Chrysoloras, 2013. "Rebuilding Eurozone’s Ground Zero. A review of the Greek economic crisis," GreeSE – Hellenic Observatory Papers on Greece and Southeast Europe 66, Hellenic Observatory, LSE.
  29. Horen Voskeritsian & Andreas Kornelakis, 2011. "Institutional Change in Greek Industrial Relations in an Era of Fiscal Crisis," GreeSE – Hellenic Observatory Papers on Greece and Southeast Europe 52, Hellenic Observatory, LSE.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Prodromos Vlamis, 2013. "Greek Fiscal Crisis and Repercussions for the Property Market," GreeSE – Hellenic Observatory Papers on Greece and Southeast Europe 76, Hellenic Observatory, LSE.
  2. Manussos Marangudakis & Kostas Rontos & Maria Xenitidou, 2013. "State Crisis and Civil Consciousness in Greece," GreeSE – Hellenic Observatory Papers on Greece and Southeast Europe 77, Hellenic Observatory, LSE.
  3. Vassilis Monastiriotis & Angelo Martelli, 2013. "Beyond Rising Unemployment: Unemployment Risk, Crisis and Regional Adjustments in Greece," GreeSE – Hellenic Observatory Papers on Greece and Southeast Europe 80, Hellenic Observatory, LSE.
  4. Nick Papandreou, 2014. "Life in the First Person and the Art of Political Storytelling:The Rhetoric of Andreas Papandreou," GreeSE – Hellenic Observatory Papers on Greece and Southeast Europe 85, Hellenic Observatory, LSE.
  5. Yiannos Katsourides, 2013. "Political Parties and Trade Unions in Cyprus," GreeSE – Hellenic Observatory Papers on Greece and Southeast Europe 74, Hellenic Observatory, LSE.
  6. Kostas Ifantis, 2013. "The US and Turkey in the fog of Regional Uncertainty," GreeSE – Hellenic Observatory Papers on Greece and Southeast Europe 73, Hellenic Observatory, LSE.
  7. Nicholas Apergis & Arusha Cooray, 2013. "New evidence on the remedies of the Greek sovereign debt problem," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 55266, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  8. Nicos Christodoulakis, 2014. "The Conflict Trap in the Greek Civil War 1946-1949: An economic approach," GreeSE – Hellenic Observatory Papers on Greece and Southeast Europe 83, Hellenic Observatory, LSE.

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