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Notes on Applying 'Real Options' to Climate Change Adaptation Measures, with Examples from Vietnam

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  • Leo Dobes

    ()
    (Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University)

Abstract

A factor common to all adaptation measures is the uncertainty that is the hallmark of climate change. The timing, intensity and location of climate change impacts is not known to any degree of precision. Because most deterministic analyses and policy prescriptions ignore this uncertainty, their recommendations are likely to waste community resources. Except by chance, adaptation measures will either be over-engineered, or they will be inadequate and result in harm. Applying real options thinking allows an incremental and flexible approach. Adaptation measures are implemented only as better knowledge becomes available over time. Several examples are given of real options in the Mekong Delta, with a comparison of net present values of two housing alternatives. It is essential to undertake net present value calculations when comparing different projects to ensure that the value of any options is weighed against other costs and benefits.

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File URL: http://ccep.anu.edu.au/data/2010/pdf/wpaper/CCEP-7-10.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Centre for Climate Economics & Policy, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University in its series CCEP Working Papers with number 0710.

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Date of creation: Nov 2010
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Handle: RePEc:een:ccepwp:0710

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Keywords: real options; Vietnam; climate change; adaptation;

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  1. Neil Ross Lambie, 2010. "Understanding the effect of an emissions trading scheme on electricity generator investment and retirement behaviour: the proposed Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 54(2), pages 203-217, 04.
  2. Dobes, Leo, 2009. "Adapting More Cleverly To Climate Change By Using ‘Real Options’ To Address The Uncertainties," 2009 Conference (53rd), February 11-13, 2009, Cairns, Australia 47615, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
  3. Robert Repetto & Robert Easton, 2009. "Climate Change and Damage from Extreme Weather Events," Working Papers wp207, Political Economy Research Institute, University of Massachusetts at Amherst.
  4. Anda, Jon & Golub, Alexander & Strukova, Elena, 2009. "Economics of climate change under uncertainty: Benefits of flexibility," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1345-1355, April.
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Cited by:
  1. David I. Stern & Frank Jotzo & Leo Dobes, 2013. "The Economics of Global Climate Change: A Historical Literature Review," CCEP Working Papers 1307, Centre for Climate Economics & Policy, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  2. Heuson, Clemens & Gawel, Erik & Gebhardt, Oliver & Hansjürgens, Bernd & Lehmann, Paul & Meyer, Volker & Schwarze, Reimund, 2012. "Fundamental questions on the economics of climate adaptation: Outlines of a new research programme," UFZ Reports 05/2012, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research (UFZ).
  3. Heuson, Clemens & Gawel, Erik & Gebhardt, Oliver & Hansjürgens, Bernd & Lehmann, Paul & Meyer, Volker & Schwarze, Reimund, 2012. "Ökonomische Grundfragen der Klimaanpassung: Umrisse eines neuen Forschungsprogramms," UFZ Reports 02/2012, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research (UFZ).

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