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Probabilistic Interest Rate Setting With A Shadow Board: A Description Of The Pilot Project

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  • TIMO HENCKEL

    ()

  • SHAUN VAHEY

    ()

  • LIZ WAKERLY

    ()

Abstract

This study aims to assess the scope for monetary policymakers to aggregate probabilistic interest rate advice. The members of a Shadow Board give probabilistic assessments of the appropriate (target) interest rate for Australia in real time. The pilot project will be running in August, September and October 2011, with the Shadow Board giving advice shortly before each decision by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Board.

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File URL: http://cama.crawford.anu.edu.au/pdf/working-papers/2011/272011.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University in its series CAMA Working Papers with number 2011-27.

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Length: 16 pages
Date of creation: Aug 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:een:camaaa:2011-27

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  1. Sibert, Anne, 1999. "Monetary Policy Committees: Individual and Collective Reputations," CEPR Discussion Papers 2328, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Christian Kascha & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2010. "Combining inflation density forecasts," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(1-2), pages 231-250.
  3. Kenneth F. Wallis, 2005. "Combining Density and Interval Forecasts: A Modest Proposal," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 67(s1), pages 983-994, December.
  4. Anne Sofie Jore & James Mitchell & Shaun Vahey, 2008. "Combining Forecast Densities from VARs with Uncertain Instabilities," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2008/18, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
  5. Petra M. Geraats, 2006. "The Mystique of Central Bank Speak," Working Papers 123, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
  6. Anke Weber, 2010. "Monetary Policy Committees, Learning, and Communication," IMF Working Papers 10/85, International Monetary Fund.
  7. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2009. "Monetary Policy Strategy," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262513374, December.
  8. Anne Sibert, 2006. "Central Banking by Committee," DNB Working Papers 091, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  9. van der Cruijsen, Carin & Jansen, David-Jan & de Haan, Jakob, 2010. "How much does the public know about the ECB's monetary policy? Evidence from a survey of Dutch households," Working Paper Series 1265, European Central Bank.
  10. Roopesh Ranjan & Tilmann Gneiting, 2010. "Combining probability forecasts," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 72(1), pages 71-91.
  11. Robert L. Winkler, 1968. "The Consensus of Subjective Probability Distributions," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 15(2), pages B61-B75, October.
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