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The dynamics of firms’ export portfolio: A network analysis with an application to Mexico and Bulgaria

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  • Juan de Lucio

    (High Council of Spanish Chambers of Commerce)

  • Raúl Mínguez

    (High Council of Spanish Chambers of Commerce)

  • Asier Minondo

    (Deusto Business School)

  • Francisco Requena

    (University of Valencia)

Abstract

In this paper we use network-analysis tools to identify communities in the web of Bulgarian and Mexican exporters' destinations. We show that the network-based community measure is superior to extended gravity measures to predict the dynamics of firm's export-portfolio. This superiority stems from the fact that community is a revealed measure, is country-specific and can be calculated at the industry level. We show that a one unit increase in the number of destinations previously served by the exporter within a community rises between 49% and 66% the probability of selecting a new export destination in that community. The networkbased community variable improves the accuracy of the model between 8% and 17% relative to a model that only includes gravity and extended-gravity variables. We also show that industry-specific communities and general communities play similar roles in determining the dynamics of Bulgarian and Mexican exporters' portfolio.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Department of Applied Economics II, Universidad de Valencia in its series Working Papers with number 1316.

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Length: 48 pages
Date of creation: Jul 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:eec:wpaper:1316

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Keywords: export market; network analysis; modularity; extended gravity; Mexico; Bulgaria;

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References

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  1. Daniel X. Nguyen, 2010. "Demand Uncertainty: Exporting Delays and Exporting Failures," Discussion Papers 10-17, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
  2. Cesar A. Hidalgo & Ricardo Hausmann, 2009. "The Building Blocks of Economic Complexity," Papers 0909.3890, arXiv.org.
  3. Ricardo Hausmann & Cesar A. Hidalgo, 2011. "The Network Structure of Economic Output," Papers 1101.1707, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2012.
  4. C. A. Hidalgo & B. Klinger & A. -L. Barabasi & R. Hausmann, 2007. "The Product Space Conditions the Development of Nations," Papers 0708.2090, arXiv.org.
  5. Facundo Albornoz & Hector F. Calvo Pardo & Gregory Corcos & Emanuel Ornelas, 2010. "Sequential Exporting," Discussion Papers 10-08, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham.
  6. Lawrence Hubert & Phipps Arabie, 1985. "Comparing partitions," Journal of Classification, Springer, vol. 2(1), pages 193-218, December.
  7. Raja Kali & Javier Reyes, 2007. "The architecture of globalization: a network approach to international economic integration," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 38(4), pages 595-620, July.
  8. Chaney, Thomas, 2011. "The Network Structure of International Trade," CEPR Discussion Papers 8240, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  9. Morales, Eduardo & Sheu, Gloria & Zahler, Andrés, 2011. "Gravity and extended gravity: estimating a structural model of export entry," MPRA Paper 30311, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  10. Juan de Lucio & Ra�l Mínguez-Fuentes & Asier Minondo & Francisco Requena-Silvente, 2011. "The extensive and intensive margins of Spanish trade," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(5), pages 615-631, January.
  11. Luca De Benedictis & Lucia Tajoli, 2009. "The World Trade Network," Working Papers 51-2009, Macerata University, Department of Finance and Economic Sciences, revised Mar 2009.
  12. Fabrice Defever & Benedikt Heid & Mario Larch, 2011. "Spatial Exporters," CEP Discussion Papers dp1100, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  13. Kali, Raja & Reyes, Javier & McGee, Joshua & Shirrell, Stuart, 2013. "Growth networks," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 216-227.
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