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Export performance and capacity pressures in Central and Eastern Europe

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  • Karsten Staehr

Abstract

This paper investigates whether various measures of capacity pressure or available production capacity may help predict the dynamics of exports from the EU countries in Central and Eastern Europe. The analysis uses annual panel data for the 11 countries from 2001 to 2019. Reduced form estimations reveal that cost competitiveness measures have little or no predictive power. The measures of capacity pressure comprise capacity utilisation in industry, the unemployment rate and the output gap, and the measures are all robust predictors of future export dynamics. The results are robust to various changes in the time and country sample, control variables and specification, and also hold in panel vector autoregressive models

Suggested Citation

  • Karsten Staehr, 2020. "Export performance and capacity pressures in Central and Eastern Europe," Bank of Estonia Working Papers wp2020-4, Bank of Estonia, revised 13 Aug 2020.
    • Handle: RePEc:eea:boewps:wp2020-4
    DOI: 10.23656/25045520/042020/0177
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    export; competitiveness; capacity utilisation; output gap; unemployment; Central and Eastern Europe;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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