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Banking Competition and Economic Stability

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  • Ronald Fischer
  • Nicolás Inostroza
  • Felipe J. Ramírez

    ()

Abstract

We consider a two-period model of a banking system to explore the effects of competition on the stability and efficiency of economic activity. In the model, competing banks lend to entrepreneurs. After entrepreneurs receive the loans for their projects, there is a probability of a shock. The shock implies that a fraction of firms will default and be unable to pay back their loans. This will require banks to use their capital and reserves to pay back depositors, restricting restrict second period lending, thus amplifying the economic effect of the initial shock. There are two possible types of equilibria, a prudent equilibrium in which banks do not collapse after the shock, and an imprudent equilibrium where banks collapse. We examine the effects of increased competition in this setting. First, we find existence conditions for prudent equilibria. Second, we showthat the effect of increased banking competition is to increase the efficiency of the economy at the expense of increased variance in second period economic results. In particular, if the probability of a shock is small, increased competition raises both expected GDP over the two period and expected activity in the second period, after the shock. Increased competition also increases the attractiveness of imprudent equilibria. Unpredicted regulatory forbearance in the aftermath of a shock can be used to reduce or eliminate the variance in economic activity. However, if regulatory forbearance is expected in response to a shock, the effect on the variance after the shock is ambiguous and can even lead to increased variance after a shock. We also show the expected result that as the size of a shock increases, there is less lending in a prudent equilibrium. Finally we show that independently of the type of equilibria or the possibility of a switch among types of equilibria, increased banking competition increases the amplification effect after a shock.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Centro de Economía Aplicada, Universidad de Chile in its series Documentos de Trabajo with number 296.

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Date of creation: 2013
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Handle: RePEc:edj:ceauch:296

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  1. T. Beck & O. De Jonghe & G. Schepens, 2011. "Bank competition and stability: cross-country heterogeneity," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 11/732, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
  2. Repullo, Rafael, 2003. "Capital Requirements, Market Power and Risk-Taking in Banking," CEPR Discussion Papers 3721, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Xavier Vives T., 2010. "Competition and Stability in Banking," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 13(2), pages 85-112, August.
  4. Diamond, Douglas W & Dybvig, Philip H, 1983. "Bank Runs, Deposit Insurance, and Liquidity," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(3), pages 401-19, June.
  5. David Martinez-Miera & Rafael Repullo, 2010. "Does Competition Reduce the Risk of Bank Failure?," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(10), pages 3638-3664, October.
  6. Dixit, Avinash K, 1986. "Comparative Statics for Oligopoly," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 27(1), pages 107-22, February.
  7. Sharpe, Steven A, 1990. " Asymmetric Information, Bank Lending, and Implicit Contracts: A Stylized Model of Customer Relationships," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(4), pages 1069-87, September.
  8. Allen, Franklin & Gale, Douglas, 2004. "Competition and Financial Stability," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(3), pages 453-80, June.
  9. Anginer, Deniz & Demirguc-Kunt, Asli & Zhu, Min, 2012. "How does bank competition affect systemic stability ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5981, The World Bank.
  10. Klaus Schaeck & Martin Cihak & Simon Wolfe, 2009. "Are Competitive Banking Systems More Stable?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(4), pages 711-734, 06.
  11. Keeley, Michael C, 1990. "Deposit Insurance, Risk, and Market Power in Banking," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(5), pages 1183-1200, December.
  12. Berger, Philip G. & Ofek, Eli, 1995. "Diversification's effect on firm value," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 39-65, January.
  13. Hakenes, Hendrik & Schnabel, Isabel, 2011. "Capital regulation, bank competition, and financial stability," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 113(3), pages 256-258.
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