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Síndrome holandés, regalías mineras y políticas de gobierno para un país dependiente de recursos naturales: el cobre en Chile

Author

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  • Pereira, Mauricio
  • De Miguel, Carlos J.
  • Ulloa, Andrés
  • O'Ryan, Raúl

Abstract

El desarrollo de Chile ha estado históricamente ligado con la producción y exportación del cobre, actividad que genera importantes ingresos para el sector público y privado. En este documento se analiza con un modelo de equilibrio general dinámico los efectos macroeconómicos, sectoriales y distributivos producidos por un aumento en el precio del cobre y el cobro de una regalía a sus rentas. Además, se simulan políticas de gobierno que apunten a lograr un mayor crecimiento y una mejora en la distribución del ingreso, identificándose tradeoffs entre estas variables tanto en el largo como en el corto plazo. Un aumento del precio internacional del cobre incide en un mayor crecimiento del PIB en el corto y largo plazo, así como en un mayor nivel de ingreso para todos los quintiles; aunque con mayores niveles de desigualdad. Inicialmente se genera un fenómeno de síndrome holandés, que se manifiesta en el corto plazo, afectando a los otros sectores exportadores. Sin embargo, este efecto es transitorio y tiende a revertirse lentamente generando mayores incrementos en el PIB. La incorporación de una regalía en este contexto controla el explosivo aumento en la producción del cobre, atenúa el efecto del síndrome holandés y aumenta la diversificación de la canasta exportadora. Sin embargo, el impacto de este efecto amortiguador depende de la forma como se utilicen los ingresos provenientes de la regalía. Este documento analiza la importancia de un adecuado diseño de políticas públicas que apunten hacia un mayor crecimiento económico, una reducción de los impactos negativos sobre otros sectores y una menor brecha en la distribución del ingreso.

Suggested Citation

  • Pereira, Mauricio & De Miguel, Carlos J. & Ulloa, Andrés & O'Ryan, Raúl, 2009. "Síndrome holandés, regalías mineras y políticas de gobierno para un país dependiente de recursos naturales: el cobre en Chile," Medio Ambiente y Desarrollo 5681, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    • Handle: RePEc:ecr:col039:5681
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    1. Francisco Correa Restrepo, 2015. "Una revisión analítica sobre el papel de la tierra en la teoría económica de David Ricardo," Revista Facultad de Ciencias Económicas, Universidad Militar Nueva Granada, vol. 0(1), pages 103-114, June.
    2. Nolazco Cama, Jose Luis & Bravo-Ortega, Claudio, 2015. "Instituciones, Recursos Naturales Y Sus Efectos En El Crecimiento Economico: Un Sistema De Ecuaciones Simultáneas En Panel De Datos [Institutions, Natural Resources And Its Impact On Economic Growt," MPRA Paper 74421, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Marc Badia-Miró & Cristián A. Ducoing, 2014. "The long run development of Chile and the Natural Resources curse. Linkages, policy and growth, 1850-1950," UB Economics Working Papers 2014/318, Universitat de Barcelona, Facultat d'Economia i Empresa, UB Economics.

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