Dynamics of Interest Rate Curve by Functional Auto-regression
AbstractThe paper applies methods of functional data analysis â€“ functional auto-regression, principal components and canonical correlations â€“ to the study of the dynamics of interest rate curve. In addition, it introduces a novel statistical tool based on the singular value decomposition of the functional cross-covariance operator. This tool is better suited for prediction purposes as opposed to either principal components or canonical correlations. Based on this tool, the paper provides a consistent method for estimating the functional auto-regression of interest rate curve. The theory is applied to estimating dynamics of Eurodollar futures rates. The results suggest that future movements of interest rates are predictable only at very short and very long horizons
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Econometric Society in its series Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings with number 229.
Date of creation: 11 Aug 2004
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Functional auto-regression; term structure dynamics; principal components; canonical correlations; singular value decomposition;
Other versions of this item:
- Vladislav Kargin & Alexei Onatski, 2004. "Dynamics of Interest Rate Curve by Functional Auto-Regression," Macroeconomics, EconWPA 0404008, EconWPA, revised 28 Oct 2004.
- C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
- E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
- G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2004-10-30 (All new papers)
- NEP-MAC-2004-10-30 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-MON-2004-10-30 (Monetary Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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NBER Working Papers
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- Heath, David & Jarrow, Robert & Morton, Andrew, 1990. "Bond Pricing and the Term Structure of Interest Rates: A Discrete Time Approximation," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(04), pages 419-440, December.
- Heath, David & Jarrow, Robert & Morton, Andrew, 1992. "Bond Pricing and the Term Structure of Interest Rates: A New Methodology for Contingent Claims Valuation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 60(1), pages 77-105, January.
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