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Social Policy and U.S. Poverty 1960-1999: An Economic History

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  • Jaynes, Gerald D.

    (Yale University)

Abstract

Interrogates poverty debate (growth versus redistribution) reignited by underperforming poverty reductions during 1980s' social spending austerity compared to 1960s' "War on Poverty." Growth and inequality explain 75% 1959-1999 poverty variation; census measurement changes 17%. Significantly, census measurement changes plus overestimated inflation biased-up 1980s measured poverty (deflated 1960s) partly explaining eighties' underperformance. Growth's poverty effect remained constant; rising inequality required 1980's growth 50% higher (1960s) for equivalent poverty reductions. Counterfactual simulations 1959-1999: absent rising earnings inequality, growth drives poverty to 5.4%; increased workerless households offset two-thirds poverty reduction from cash transfers; had Carter and Reagan redistributed like predecessors, poverty reduced one-half.

Suggested Citation

  • Jaynes, Gerald D., 2011. "Social Policy and U.S. Poverty 1960-1999: An Economic History," Working Papers 90, Yale University, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecl:yaleco:90
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • N12 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - U.S.; Canada: 1913-
    • N32 - Economic History - - Labor and Consumers, Demography, Education, Health, Welfare, Income, Wealth, Religion, and Philanthropy - - - U.S.; Canada: 1913-

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