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Predatory Lending and the Subprime Crisis

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  • Agarwal, Sumit

    (National University of Singapore and Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago)

  • Ben-David, Itzhak

    (OH State University)

  • Amromin, Gene

    (Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago)

  • Chomsisengphet, Souphala

    (US Office of the Comptroller of the Currency)

  • Evanoff, Douglas D.

    (Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago)

Abstract

It is typically argued that predatory lending generated significant social costs and played a central role in creating the subprime crisis. However, there are few estimates of its true effect. We estimate the effect of predatory lending on the residential mortgage default rate using an anti-predatory program implemented in Chicago in 2006. Under the legislation, risky borrowers and risky mortgages triggered mandatory counseling. Following the legislation, market activity decreased by about 35%, where risky borrowers, risky products, and lenders who typically made riskier loans were most affected. Despite the sharp decline in market activity, 18- and 36-month default rates in the treated group exhibited a relative improvement of 12% and 7%, respectively. We estimate that predatory loans have a 6-7% higher default rate than nonpredatory loans. Our results suggest that predatory lending may have not been instrumental in precipitating the financial crisis as often believed.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics in its series Working Paper Series with number 2012-08.

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Date of creation: May 2012
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Handle: RePEc:ecl:ohidic:2012-08

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  1. Luigi Guiso & Paola Sapienza & Luigi Zingales, 2013. "The Determinants of Attitudes toward Strategic Default on Mortgages," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 68(4), pages 1473-1515, 08.
  2. Marianne Bertrand & Adair Morse, 2011. "Information Disclosure, Cognitive Biases, and Payday Borrowing," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 66(6), pages 1865-1893, December.
  3. John Y. Campbell & Stefano Giglio & Parag Pathak, 2009. "Forced Sales and House Prices," NBER Working Papers 14866, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Benjamin J. Keys & Tanmoy Mukherjee & Amit Seru & Vikrant Vig, 2010. "Did Securitization Lead to Lax Screening? Evidence from Subprime Loans," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 125(1), pages 307-362, February.
  5. Joao Cocco & John Campbell, 2004. "Household Risk Management and Optimal Mortgage Choice," Econometric Society 2004 North American Winter Meetings 632, Econometric Society.
  6. Litan, Robert E., 2001. "A Prudent Approach to Preventing "Predatory" Lending," Working paper 396, Regulation2point0.
  7. Bolton, Patrick & Freixas, Xavier & Shapiro, Joel, 2007. "Conflicts of interest, information provision, and competition in the financial services industry," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(2), pages 297-330, August.
  8. Sumit Agarwal & Paige M. Skiba & Jeremy Tobacman, 2009. "Payday Loans and Credit Cards: New Liquidity and Credit Scoring Puzzles?," NBER Working Papers 14659, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Raphael Bostic & Souphala Chomsisengphet & Kathleen Engel & Patricia McCoy & Anthony Pennington-Cross & Susan Wachter, 2012. "Mortgage Product Substitution and State Anti-predatory Lending Laws: Better Loans and Better Borrowers?," Atlantic Economic Journal, International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 40(3), pages 273-294, September.
  10. Morse, Adair, 2011. "Payday lenders: Heroes or villains?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(1), pages 28-44, October.
  11. Sumit Agarwal & Gene Amromin & Itzhak Ben-David & Souphala Chomsisengphet & Douglas D. Evanoff, 2010. "Learning to Cope: Voluntary Financial Education and Loan Performance during a Housing Crisis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(2), pages 495-500, May.
  12. Carlin, Bruce I., 2009. "Strategic price complexity in retail financial markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(3), pages 278-287, March.
  13. Itzhak Ben-David, 2011. "Financial Constraints and Inflated Home Prices during the Real Estate Boom," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(3), pages 55-87, July.
  14. Marianne Bertrand & Esther Duflo & Sendhil Mullainathan, 2004. "How Much Should We Trust Differences-in-Differences Estimates?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 119(1), pages 249-275, February.
  15. Brian T. Melzer, 2011. "The Real Costs of Credit Access: Evidence from the Payday Lending Market," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 126(1), pages 517-555.
  16. Alberto Abadie & Javier Gardeazabal, 2003. "The Economic Costs of Conflict: A Case Study of the Basque Country," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 113-132, March.
  17. Bond, Philip & Musto, David K. & Yilmaz, Bilge, 2009. "Predatory mortgage lending," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(3), pages 412-427, December.
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Cited by:
  1. Sumit Agarwal & Gene Amromin & Itzhak Ben-David & Souphala Chomsisengphet & Douglas Evanoff, 2014. "The Effectiveness of Mandatory Mortgage Counseling: Can One Dissuade Borrowers from Choosing Risky Mortgages?," NBER Working Papers 19920, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Agarwal, Sumit & Ben-David, Itzhak & Yao, Vincent, 2012. "Collateral Valuation and Borrower Financial Constraints: Evidence from the Residential Real-Estate Market," Working Paper Series 2012-29, Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics.

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