IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ecl/harjfk/rwp14-003.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Implied Comparative Advantage

Author

Listed:
  • Hausmann, Ricardo

    (Harvard University and Santa Fe Institute)

  • Hidalgo, Cesar A.

    (MIT and ISCV, Valparaiso)

  • Stock, Daniel P.

    (Harvard University and MIT)

  • Yildirim, Muhammed A.

    (Harvard University)

Abstract

Ricardian theories of production often take the comparative advantage of locations in different industries to be uncorrelated. They are seen as the outcome of the realization of a random extreme value distribution. These theories do not take a stance regarding the counterfactual or implied comparative advantage if the country does not make the product. Here, we find that industries in countries and cities tend to have a relative size that is systematically correlated with that of other industries. Industries also tend to have a relative size that is systematically correlated with the size of the industry in similar countries and cities. We illustrate this using export data for a large set of countries and for city-level data for the US, Chile and India. These stylized facts can be rationalized using a Ricardian framework where comparative advantage is correlated across technologically related industries. More interestingly, the deviations between actual industry intensity and the implied intensity obtained from that of related industries or related locations tend to be highly predictive of future industry growth, especially at horizons of a decade or more. This result holds both at the intensive as well as the extensive margin, indicating that future comparative advantage is already implied in todays pattern of production.

Suggested Citation

  • Hausmann, Ricardo & Hidalgo, Cesar A. & Stock, Daniel P. & Yildirim, Muhammed A., 2014. "Implied Comparative Advantage," Working Paper Series rwp14-003, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecl:harjfk:rwp14-003
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://research.hks.harvard.edu/publications/getFile.aspx?Id=1020
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Alan V. Deardorff, 2011. "The General Validity of the Heckscher-Ohlin Theorem," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Robert M Stern (ed.), Comparative Advantage, Growth, And The Gains From Trade And Globalization A Festschrift in Honor of Alan V Deardorff, chapter 11, pages 91-103, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    2. Frank Neffke & Martin Henning & Ron Boschma, 2011. "How Do Regions Diversify over Time? Industry Relatedness and the Development of New Growth Paths in Regions," Economic Geography, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 87(3), pages 237-265, July.
    3. Davis, Donald R. & David E. Weinstein & Scott C. Bradford & Kazushige Shimpo, 1997. "Using International and Japanese Regional Data to Determine When the Factor Abundance Theory of Trade Works," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(3), pages 421-446, June.
    4. Werner Antweiler & Daniel Trefler, 2002. "Increasing Returns and All That: A View from Trade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(1), pages 93-119, March.
    5. Michael Porter, 2003. "The Economic Performance of Regions," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(6-7), pages 549-578.
    6. Donald R. Davis & David E. Weinstein, 2001. "An Account of Global Factor Trade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(5), pages 1423-1453, December.
    7. Sebastián Bustos & Charles Gomez & Ricardo Hausmann & César A Hidalgo, 2012. "The Dynamics of Nestedness Predicts the Evolution of Industrial Ecosystems," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 7(11), pages 1-8, November.
    8. Leamer, Edward E, 1980. "The Leontief Paradox, Reconsidered," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(3), pages 495-503, June.
    9. Miguel Martinho, 2008. "Port Competition and Hinterland Connections," OECD/ITF Joint Transport Research Centre Discussion Papers 2008/19, OECD Publishing.
    10. Bahar, Dany & Hausmann, Ricardo & Hidalgo, Cesar A., 2014. "Neighbors and the evolution of the comparative advantage of nations: Evidence of international knowledge diffusion?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(1), pages 111-123.
    11. Patrick J. Conway, 2002. "The Case of the Missing Trade and Other Mysteries: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(1), pages 394-404, March.
    12. Edward L. Glaeser & Glenn Ellison, 1999. "The Geographic Concentration of Industry: Does Natural Advantage Explain Agglomeration?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(2), pages 311-316, May.
    13. Keith E. Maskus & Shuichiro Nishioka, 2009. "Development‐related biases in factor productivities and the HOV model of trade," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 42(2), pages 519-553, May.
    14. Trefler, Daniel, 1993. "International Factor Price Differences: Leontief Was Right!," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 101(6), pages 961-987, December.
    15. C. A. Hidalgo & B. Klinger & A. -L. Barabasi & R. Hausmann, 2007. "The Product Space Conditions the Development of Nations," Papers 0708.2090, arXiv.org.
    16. Tolbert, Charles M. & Sizer, Molly, 1996. "U.S. Commuting Zones and Labor Market Areas: A 1990 Update," Staff Reports 278812, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    17. Hausmann, Ricardo & Klinger, Bailey, 2006. "Structural Transformation and Patterns of Comparative Advantage in the Product Space," Working Paper Series rwp06-041, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
    18. Gaulier, Guillaume & Zignago, Soledad, 2004. "Notes on BACI (analytical database of international trade). 1989-2002 version," MPRA Paper 32401, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Arnaud Costinot & Dave Donaldson, 2012. "Ricardo's Theory of Comparative Advantage: Old Idea, New Evidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(3), pages 453-458, May.
    20. Debeare, Peter, 2003. "Relative Factor Abundance and Trade," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 111(3), pages 589-610, June.
    21. Dornbusch, Rudiger & Fischer, Stanley & Samuelson, Paul A, 1977. "Comparative Advantage, Trade, and Payments in a Ricardian Model with a Continuum of Goods," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(5), pages 823-839, December.
    22. Hakura, Dalia S., 2001. "Why does HOV fail?: The role of technological differences within the EC," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 361-382, August.
    23. Paul Resnick & Neophytos Iacovou & Mitesh Suchak & Peter Bergstrom & John Riedl, 1994. "GroupLens: An Open Architecture for Collaborative Filtering of Netnews," Working Paper Series 165, MIT Center for Coordination Science.
    24. ., 2008. "Competitive Markets and Price Regulation," Chapters, in: Microeconomic Policy, chapter 4, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    25. Mercedes Delgado & Michael E. Porter & Scott Stern, 2010. "Clusters and entrepreneurship," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 10(4), pages 495-518, July.
    26. Bela Balassa, 1964. "The Purchasing-Power Parity Doctrine: A Reappraisal," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 72, pages 584-584.
    27. Reimer, Jeffrey J., 2006. "Global production sharing and trade in the services of factors," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(2), pages 384-408, March.
    28. Bowen, Harry P & Leamer, Edward E & Sveikauskas, Leo, 1987. "Multicountry, Multifactor Tests of the Factor Abundance Theory," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(5), pages 791-809, December.
    29. Zhu, Susan Chun & Trefler, Daniel, 2005. "Trade and inequality in developing countries: a general equilibrium analysis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(1), pages 21-48, January.
    30. Dani Rodrik, 2013. "Unconditional Convergence in Manufacturing," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 128(1), pages 165-204.
    31. Jonathan Eaton & Samuel Kortum, 2002. "Technology, Geography, and Trade," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(5), pages 1741-1779, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. O’Clery, Neave & Kinsella, Stephen, 2022. "Modular structure in labour networks reveals skill basins," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(5).
    2. Neffke, Frank M.H. & Otto, Anne & Weyh, Antje, 2017. "Inter-industry labor flows," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 275-292.
    3. Eduardo Lora, 2016. "The Path to Labor Formality: Urban Agglomeration and the Emergence of Complex Industries," CID Working Papers 78, Center for International Development at Harvard University.
    4. Neave O'Clery & Eduardo Lora, 2016. "City Size, Distance and Formal Employment," CID Working Papers 77, Center for International Development at Harvard University.
    5. Julien Gourdon & Laura Hering & Stéphanie Monjon & Sandra Poncet, 2019. "Trade policy repercussions: the role of local product space -Evidence from China," Working Papers hal-02065779, HAL.
    6. Diodato, Dario & Neffke, Frank & O’Clery, Neave, 2018. "Why do industries coagglomerate? How Marshallian externalities differ by industry and have evolved over time," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 1-26.
    7. Dmitry Kuznetsov, 2021. "Export Product Scope of Russian Firms and Proximity to Local Comparative Advantages [Ассортимент Экспорта Российских Предприятий И Близость К Локальным Сравнительным Преимуществам]," Ekonomicheskaya Politika / Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, vol. 1, pages 56-81, February.
    8. Julien Gourdon & Laura Hering & Stéphanie Monjon & Sandra Poncet, 2022. "Estimating the Repercussions from China’s Export VAT Rebate Policy," PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint) hal-03274542, HAL.
    9. Lyubimov, Ivan L. (Любимов, Иван) & Gvozdeva, Margarita V. (Гвоздева, Маргарита) & Lysyuk, Maria A. (Лысюк, Мария), 2018. "Measuring Regional Development with the Network Theory Approach [Использование Теории Сетей При Составлении Рейтингов Развития Региональных Экономик]," Ekonomicheskaya Politika / Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, vol. 3, pages 206-233, June.
    10. Aribah Aslam & Amjad Naveed & Ghulam Shabbir, 2021. "Is it an institution, digital or social inclusion that matters for inclusive growth? A panel data analysis," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 55(1), pages 333-355, February.
    11. Dario Diodato & Frank Neffke & Neave O'Clery, 2016. "Agglomeration Economies: The Heterogeneous Contribution of Human Capital and Value Chains," CID Working Papers 76, Center for International Development at Harvard University.
    12. Hausmann, Ricardo & Morales, Jose Ramon & Santos, Miguel Angel, 2016. "Economic Complexity in Panama: Assessing Opportunities for Productive Diversification," Working Paper Series rwp16-046, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
    13. Neave O'Clery & Samuel Heroy & Francois Hulot & Mariano Beguerisse-D'iaz, 2019. "Unravelling the forces underlying urban industrial agglomeration," Papers 1903.09279, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2019.
    14. Giovanni Dosi & Matteo Tranchero, 2018. "The Role of Comparative Advantage, Endowments and Technology in Structural Transformation," LEM Papers Series 2018/33, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    15. Ricardo Hausmann & Jose Ramon Morales Arilla & Miguel Angel Santos, 2016. "Panama beyond the Canal: Using Technological Proximities to Identify Opportunities for Productive Diversification," CID Working Papers 324, Center for International Development at Harvard University.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hausmann, Ricardo & Stock, Daniel P. & Yıldırım, Muhammed A., 2022. "Implied comparative advantage," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(8).
    2. Daniel Bernhofen, 2010. "The Empirics of General Equilibrium Tade Theory: What Have we Learned?," CESifo Working Paper Series 3242, CESifo.
    3. Trefler, Daniel & Zhu, Susan Chun, 2010. "The structure of factor content predictions," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(2), pages 195-207, November.
    4. Keith E. Maskus & Shuichiro Nishioka, 2009. "Development‐related biases in factor productivities and the HOV model of trade," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 42(2), pages 519-553, May.
    5. Balland, Pierre-Alexandre & Broekel, Tom & Diodato, Dario & Giuliani, Elisa & Hausmann, Ricardo & O'Clery, Neave & Rigby, David, 2022. "Reprint of The new paradigm of economic complexity," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(8).
    6. Andrés Artal‐Tur & Carlos Llano‐Verduras & Francisco Requena‐Silvente, 2010. "Factor productivity differences and missing trade problems in a regional HOV model," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 89(4), pages 759-776, November.
    7. Donald R. Davis & David E. Weinstein, 2001. "The Factor Content of Trade," NBER Working Papers 8637, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Demmou Lilas, 2009. "Déterminants et nature des spécialisations Nord-Sud : quelques enseignements tirés de la littérature empirique," Revue d'économie politique, Dalloz, vol. 119(1), pages 71-94.
    9. Andrés Artal & Juana Castillo & Francisco Requena, 2006. "Contrastación empírica del modelo de dotaciones factoriales para el comercio interregional de España," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 30(3), pages 539-576, September.
    10. Balland, Pierre-Alexandre & Broekel, Tom & Diodato, Dario & Giuliani, Elisa & Hausmann, Ricardo & O'Clery, Neave & Rigby, David, 2022. "The new paradigm of economic complexity," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(3).
    11. William R Kerr, 2018. "Heterogeneous Technology Diffusion and Ricardian Trade Patterns," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 32(1), pages 163-182.
    12. Artal-Tur, Andrés & Castillo-Giménez, Juana & Llano-Verduras, Carlos & Requena-Silvente, Francisco, 2011. "The factor content of regional bilateral trade: The role of technology and demand," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 157-172, April.
    13. Ciaian, Pavel & Kancs, d'Artis & Pokrivcak, Jan, 2011. "Comparative Advantages, Transaction Costs and Factor Content in Agricultural Trade: Empirical Evidence from the CEE - Vantaggi comparati, costi di transazione e contenuto dei fattori nel commercio agr," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 64(1), pages 67-101.
    14. Assaf Zimring, 2019. "Testing the Heckscher–Ohlin–Vanek theory with a natural experiment," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 52(1), pages 58-92, February.
    15. Elhanan Helpman, 1999. "The Structure of Foreign Trade," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 13(2), pages 121-144, Spring.
    16. Francisco Requena & Andrés Artal & Juana Castillo, 2008. "Testing Heckscher— Ohlin—Vanek Model Using Spanish Regional Data," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 31(2), pages 159-184, April.
    17. Kagawa, Shigemi, 2008. "How does Japanese compliance with the Kyoto Protocol affect environmental productivity in China and Japan?," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 173-188, June.
    18. Morrow, Peter M. & Trefler, Daniel, 2022. "How do endowments determine trade? quantifying the output mix, factor price, and skill-biased technology channels," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    19. Donald R. Davis & David E. Weinstein, 2001. "An Account of Global Factor Trade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(5), pages 1423-1453, December.
    20. Yun‐kwong Kwok, 2006. "Global factor trade with differentiated factor prices and factor intensities," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(3), pages 758-780, August.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • F11 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Neoclassical Models of Trade
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • O41 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
    • O50 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - General

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ecl:harjfk:rwp14-003. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ksharus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.