Estimating the Structural Credit Risk Model When Equity Prices Are Contaminated by Trading Noises
AbstractThe transformed-data maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) method for structural credit risk models developed by Duan (1994) is extended to account for the fact that observed equity prices may have been contaminated by trading noises. With the presence of trading noises, the likelihood function based on the observed equity prices can only be evaluated via some nonlinear filtering scheme. We devise a particle filtering algorithm that is practical for conducting the MLE estimation of the structural credit risk model of Merton (1974). We implement the method on the Dow Jones 30 firms and on 100 randomly selected firms, and find that ignoring trading noises can lead to significantly over-estimating the firm’s asset volatility. The estimated magnitude of trading noise is in line with the direction that a firm’s liquidity will predict based on three common liquidity proxies. A simulation study is then conducted to ascertain the performance of the estimation method.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by ESSEC Research Center, ESSEC Business School in its series ESSEC Working Papers with number DR 06015.
Length: 30 pages
Date of creation: Oct 2006
Date of revision:
Credit Risk; Maximum Likelihood; Microstructure; Option Pricing; Particle Filtering;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models &bull Diffusion Processes
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2007-06-02 (All new papers)
- NEP-ECM-2007-06-02 (Econometrics)
- NEP-MST-2007-06-02 (Market Microstructure)
- NEP-RMG-2007-06-02 (Risk Management)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Duan, Jin-Chuan & Simonato, Jean-Guy, 2002. "Maximum likelihood estimation of deposit insurance value with interest rate risk," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 109-132, January.
- Gourieroux,Christian & Monfort,Alain, 1995. "Statistics and Econometric Models," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521405515, April.
- Harris, Lawrence, 1990. "Estimation of Stock Price Variances and Serial Covariances from Discrete Observations," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(03), pages 291-306, September.
- Gourieroux,Christian & Monfort,Alain, 1995. "Statistics and Econometric Models," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521477451, April.
- Jarrow, Robert A. & Turnbull, Stuart M., 2000. "The intersection of market and credit risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 271-299, January.
- Luc Laeven, 2002. "Bank Risk and Deposit Insurance," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 16(1), pages 109-137, June.
- Jan Ericsson, 2005. "Estimating Structural Bond Pricing Models," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 78(2), pages 707-735, March.
- Hasbrouck, Joel, 1993. "Assessing the Quality of a Security Market: A New Approach to Transaction-Cost Measurement," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(1), pages 191-212.
- Gourieroux,Christian & Monfort,Alain, 1995. "Statistics and Econometric Models," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521471626, April.
- Ericsson, Jan & Reneby, Joel, 2003. "Valuing Corporate Liabilities," SIFR Research Report Series 15, Institute for Financial Research.
- Jin-Chuan Duan, 1994. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation Using Price Data Of The Derivative Contract," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 4(2), pages 155-167.
- Merton, Robert C., 1973.
"On the pricing of corporate debt: the risk structure of interest rates,"
684-73., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
- Merton, Robert C, 1974. "On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-70, May.
- Lan Zhang & Per A. Mykland & Yacine Ait-Sahalia, 2003.
"A Tale of Two Time Scales: Determining Integrated Volatility with Noisy High Frequency Data,"
NBER Working Papers
10111, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Zhang, Lan & Mykland, Per A. & Ait-Sahalia, Yacine, 2005. "A Tale of Two Time Scales: Determining Integrated Volatility With Noisy High-Frequency Data," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 100, pages 1394-1411, December.
- Duan, Jin-Chuan & Yu, Min-Teh, 1995.
"Assessing the cost of Taiwan's deposit insurance,"
Pacific-Basin Finance Journal,
Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 139-139, May.
- Ananth Madhavan & Matthew Richardson & Mark Roomans, 1996.
"Why Do Security Prices Change? A Transaction-Level Analysis of NYSE Stocks,"
New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires
96-34, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-.
- Madhavan, Ananth & Richardson, Matthew & Roomans, Mark, 1997. "Why Do Security Prices Change? A Transaction-Level Analysis of NYSE Stocks," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(4), pages 1035-64.
- Ananth Madhavan & Matthew Richardson & Mark Roomans, . "Why Do Security Prices Change? A Transaction-Level Analysis of NYSE Stocks," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 20-94, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
- Yacine Aït-Sahalia, 2005.
"How Often to Sample a Continuous-Time Process in the Presence of Market Microstructure Noise,"
Review of Financial Studies,
Society for Financial Studies, vol. 18(2), pages 351-416.
- Yacine Ait-Sahalia & Per A. Mykland, 2003. "How Often to Sample a Continuous-Time Process in the Presence of Market Microstructure Noise," NBER Working Papers 9611, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-54, May-June.
- Gourieroux,Christian & Monfort,Alain, 1995. "Statistics and Econometric Models," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521477444, April.
- Lehar, Alfred, 2005. "Measuring systemic risk: A risk management approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(10), pages 2577-2603, October.
- Bandi, Federico M. & Russell, Jeffrey R., 2006. "Separating microstructure noise from volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(3), pages 655-692, March.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Sophie Magnanou).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.