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Estimating the structural credit risk model when equity prices are contaminated by trading noises

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  • Duan, Jin-Chuan
  • Fulop, Andras
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    Abstract

    The transformed-data maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) method for structural credit risk models developed by Duan [Duan, J.-C., 1994. Maximum likelihood estimation using price data of the derivative contract. Mathematical Finance 4, 155-167] is extended to account for the fact that observed equity prices may have been contaminated by trading noises. With the presence of trading noises, the likelihood function based on the observed equity prices can only be evaluated via some nonlinear filtering scheme. We devise a particle filtering algorithm that is practical for conducting the MLE estimation of the structural credit risk model of Merton [Merton, R.C., 1974. On the pricing of corporate debt: The risk structure of interest rates. Journal of Finance 29, 449-470]. We implement the method on the Dow Jones 30 firms and on 100 randomly selected firms, and find that ignoring trading noises can lead to significantly over-estimating the firm's asset volatility. The estimated magnitude of trading noise is in line with the direction that a firm's liquidity will predict based on three common liquidity proxies. A simulation study is then conducted to ascertain the performance of the estimation method.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Econometrics.

    Volume (Year): 150 (2009)
    Issue (Month): 2 (June)
    Pages: 288-296

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:econom:v:150:y:2009:i:2:p:288-296

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    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jeconom

    Related research

    Keywords: Particle filtering Maximum likelihood Option pricing Credit risk Microstructure;

    References

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    1. Jin-Chuan Duan, 1994. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation Using Price Data Of The Derivative Contract," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 4(2), pages 155-167.
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    Cited by:
    1. Fulop, Andras & Li, Junye, 2013. "Efficient learning via simulation: A marginalized resample-move approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 176(2), pages 146-161.
    2. Michele Leonardo Bianchi, 2012. "An empirical comparison of alternative credit default swap pricing models," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers), Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area 882, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    3. Chung, Tsz-Kin & Hui, Cho-Hoi & Li, Ka-Fai, 2013. "Explaining share price disparity with parameter uncertainty: Evidence from Chinese A- and H-shares," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 1073-1083.
    4. Huang, Shirley J. & Yu, Jun, 2010. "Bayesian analysis of structural credit risk models with microstructure noises," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(11), pages 2259-2272, November.
    5. Flavia Barsotti & Simona Sanfelici, 2012. "Microstructure effect on firm’s volatility risk," Working Papers - Mathematical Economics, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Scienze per l'Economia e l'Impresa 2012-05, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Scienze per l'Economia e l'Impresa.
    6. Di Bu & Yin Liao, 2013. "Structural Credit Risk Model with Stochastic Volatility: A Particle-filter Approach," NCER Working Paper Series, National Centre for Econometric Research 98, National Centre for Econometric Research.
    7. Forte, Santiago & Lovreta, Lidija, 2012. "Endogenizing exogenous default barrier models: The MM algorithm," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(6), pages 1639-1652.
    8. Michael Pitt & Sheheryar Malik & Arnaud Doucet, 2014. "Simulated likelihood inference for stochastic volatility models using continuous particle filtering," Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Springer, vol. 66(3), pages 527-552, June.
    9. Guarin, Alexander & Liu, Xiaoquan & Ng, Wing Lon, 2014. "Recovering default risk from CDS spreads with a nonlinear filter," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 87-104.

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