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Understanding Fundamentalist Belief Through Bayesian Updating

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  • Srijit Mishra

    (Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research)

Abstract

Using Bayesian updating to deterministic priors persistence of fundamentalist belief like those in the mind of a terrorist is explained. Under such belief system if conditional evidence is diametrically opposite and also deterministic then a process of change will set in and in the present war against terrorism this can be effectively done through Islamic religious authorities. In situations where interaction is the basis, self-defeating scenarios can be avoided by giving space to others. Thus, in the political sphere one has to be accommodative about the concerns of Middle East, this will also make things easier for intervention through Islam.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by East Asian Bureau of Economic Research in its series Microeconomics Working Papers with number 22391.

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Date of creation: Jan 2003
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Handle: RePEc:eab:microe:22391

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Keywords: Bayesian updating; fundamentalist belief; interaction; variation;

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References

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  1. Llussá, Fernanda & Tavares, José, 2007. "Economics and Terrorism: What We Know, What We Should Know and the Data We Need," CEPR Discussion Papers 6509, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Srijit Mishra, 2011. "Conflict Resolution through Mutuality: Lessons from Bayesian Updating," Journal of Quantitative Economics, The Indian Econometric Society, vol. 9(1), pages 41-52.
  3. Srijit Mishra, 2010. "Understanding Fundamentalist Belief Through Bayesian Updating," Working Papers id:2563, eSocialSciences.
  4. Kuhn, H.W. & Harsanyi, J.C. & Selten, R. & Weibull, J.W. & Damme, E.E.C. van & Nash Jr, J.F. & Hammerstein, P., 1995. "The work of John F. Nash Jr. in game theory," Open Access publications from Tilburg University urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-154411, Tilburg University.
  5. Alberto Baccini, 2001. "Frequentist Probability and Choice under Uncertainty," History of Political Economy, Duke University Press, vol. 33(4), pages 743-772, Winter.
  6. Borgers, Tilman, 1996. "On the Relevance of Learning and Evolution to Economic Theory," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 106(438), pages 1374-85, September.
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Cited by:
  1. Srijit Mishra, 2002. "Understanding fundamentalist belief through Bayesian updating," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2003-002, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.
  2. Srijit Mishra, 2011. "Conflict resolution through mutuality: Lessons from Bayesian updating," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2011-001, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.

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