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Indian Economic Outlook 2008-09 and 2009-10

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Author Info

  • Rajiv Kumar

    (ICRIER)

  • Mathew Joseph
  • Dony Alex
  • Pankaj Vashisht
  • Debosree Banerjee

Abstract

This paper provides an outlook for the Indian economy in the light of the extraordinary global financial crisis, that started in the US, but which has now transformed into the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression. The Indian economy was slowing down even before the onset of global crisis and so the timing of this external shock could not have been worse. The analysis undertaken for this paper shows that the global crisis is likely to bring the Indian GDP growth rate down considerably. This will pose a big challenge requiring urgent and sustained policy attention to prevent this downturn from becoming unnecessarily prolonged. There is real downside risk that the growth rate could plummet to the pre-1980s levels if appropriate countercyclical measures are not taken immediately and are not urgently followed by necessary structural reforms. The paper provides a short-term forecast for GDP growth based on a model of leading economic indicators. We present three scenarios in the paper assuming differentiated impact of the external crisis. Finally the paper suggests a set of policy measures to get the Indian economy back on the path of sustained rapid and inclusive growth.

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File URL: http://saber.eaber.org/node/22916
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by East Asian Bureau of Economic Research in its series Macroeconomics Working Papers with number 22916.

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Date of creation: Jan 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:eab:macroe:22916

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Postal: JG Crawford Building #13, Asia Pacific School of Economics and Government, Australian National University, ACT 0200
Web page: http://www.eaber.org
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Related research

Keywords: Forecasting; Indian economic growth; Economic outlook and conditions; Financial crises;

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References

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  1. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2008. "Banking Crises: An Equal Opportunity Menace," NBER Working Papers 14587, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff & Miguel A. Savastano, 2003. "Debt Intolerance," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 34(1), pages 1-74.
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Cited by:
  1. Mathew, Dr Jomon, 2013. "Trends and Challenges of India’s Balance of Payments," MPRA Paper 51167, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Sreenilayam, Dr Jomon Mathew, 2013. "Trends and Challenges of India’s Balance of Payments," MPRA Paper 51387, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 05 Sep 2013.

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