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Testing for a New Economy in the 1990s

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Author Info
Ray C. Fair () (Cowles Foundation, Yale University)

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Abstract

This paper examines how much structural change there was in the U.S. economy in the last half of the 1990s. The results are consistent with the hypothesis that there was only one major structural change, namely the huge increase in stock prices relative to earnings. All other large changes can be explained by this change. There is no obvious reason for the large increase in stock prices relative to earnings. Increased productivity growth does not appear to be an answer since the data show that there was only a modest increase in long run productivity growth in the last half of the 1990s. Also, earnings growth and the share of earnings in the economy were not unusually large.

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File URL: http://cowles.econ.yale.edu/P/cd/d13b/d1388.pdf
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Cowles Foundation, Yale University in its series Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers with number 1388.

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Length: 25 pages
Date of creation: Dec 2002
Date of revision: Mar 2003
Publication status: Published in Business Economics (January 2004), 39(1): 43-53
Handle: RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:1388

Note: CFP 1194.
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Postal: Yale University, Box 208281, New Haven, CT 06520-8281 USA
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Postal: Cowles Foundation, Yale University, Box 208281, New Haven, CT 06520-8281 USA

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Related research
Keywords: New economy; Stability tests;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E10 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - General
C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation and Testing

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Andrews, Donald W K & Fair, Ray C, 1988. "Inference in Nonlinear Econometric Models with Structural Change," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 55(4), pages 615-39, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. D. W. K. Andrews, 2003. "End-of-Sample Instability Tests," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(6), pages 1661-1694, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Dale W. Jorgenson & Kevin J. Stiroh, 2000. "Raising the Speed Limit: U.S. Economic Growth in the Information Age," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 31(2000-1), pages 125-236. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. William D. Nordhaus, 2000. "Productivity Growth and the New Economy," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1284, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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This page was last updated on 2009-12-4.

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