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Maximum likelihood estimation of score-driven models with dynamic shape parameters : an application to Monte Carlo value-at-risk

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  • Blazsek, Szabolcs
  • Ayala, Astrid
  • Escribano, Álvaro

Abstract

Dynamic conditional score (DCS) models with time-varying shape parameters provide a exible method for volatility measurement. The new models are estimated by using the maximum likelihood (ML) method, conditions of consistency and asymptotic normality of ML are presented, and Monte Carlo simulation experiments are used to study the precision of ML. Daily data from the Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) for the period of 1950 to 2017 are used. The performances of DCS models with constant and dynamic shape parameters are compared. In-sample statistical performance metrics and out-of-sample value-at-risk backtesting support the use of DCS models with dynamic shape.

Suggested Citation

  • Blazsek, Szabolcs & Ayala, Astrid & Escribano, Álvaro, 2019. "Maximum likelihood estimation of score-driven models with dynamic shape parameters : an application to Monte Carlo value-at-risk," UC3M Working papers. Economics 28638, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía.
    • Handle: RePEc:cte:werepe:28638
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    Cited by:

    1. Ayala Astrid & Blazsek Szabolcs & Escribano Alvaro, 2023. "Anticipating extreme losses using score-driven shape filters," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 27(4), pages 449-484, September.
    2. Blazsek, Szabolcs & Escribano, Álvaro & Licht, Adrian, 2019. "Markov-switching score-driven multivariate models: outlier-robust measurement of the relationships between world crude oil production and US industrial production," UC3M Working papers. Economics 29030, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Dynamic Conditional Score Models;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics

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