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Nonlinear Exchange Rate Adjustment in the Enlarged Euro zone. Evidence and Implications for Candidate Countries

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Author Info
Nikolaos Giannellis () (Department of Economics, University of Crete, Greece)
Athanasios Papadopoulos () (Department of Economics, University of Crete, Greece)

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Abstract

This paper sheds light on the importance of the validity of PPP hypothesis for the accessing process of the candidate countries towards EMU. The evidence of nonlinear adjustment in real exchange rates insists the estimation of a nonlinear SETAR model. While linear half-life estimates are biased upward (5 years on average), SETAR half-life estimates imply a faster reverting process (1.5 years on average). As a consequence, the evidence in favor of PPP hypothesis and the fast equilibrium adjustment of real exchange rates (setting Euro as the numeraire currency) imply that candidate countries follow a normal integration process towards EMU.

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File URL: http://economics.soc.uoc.gr/wpa/docs/SETAR.pdf
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by University of Crete, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 0718.

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Length: 27 pages
Date of creation: 10 Jan 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:crt:wpaper:0718

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Related research
Keywords: EMU enlargement; PPP; Half-life; Nonlinearity; SETAR.;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Sarno, Lucio & Taylor, Mark P. & Chowdhury, Ibrahim, 2004. "Nonlinear dynamics in deviations from the law of one price: a broad-based empirical study," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 1-25, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Sarno, Lucio, 2000. "Real exchange rate behavior in the Middle East: a re-examination," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 127-136, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Sabate, Marcela & Gadea, Maria Dolores & Serrano, Jose Maria, 2003. "PPP and structural breaks. The peseta-sterling rate, 50 years of a floating regime," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(5), pages 613-627, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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