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The Behaviour of the Real Exchange Rate: Evidence from an Alternative Price Index

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Author Info
Lucio Sarno
Ibrahim Chowdhury

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Abstract

Although the long-run purchasing power parity (PPP) hypothesis is expected to hold across tradable goods, all price indices available to researchers for testing the validity of PPP contain some proportion of non-tradable goods prices, which may generate substantial persistence in the real exchange rate. We construct time series for quarterly price indices that minimize the presence of non-tradable goods for six major economies. Applying recently developed nonlinear econometric techniques to the resulting five US dollar real exchange rate series for the recent floating exchange rate regime, we provide evidence that the nonlinear mean reverting properties of these real exchange rate series are stronger than the mean reverting properties of real exchange rate time series constructed using the consumer price index (CPI). In turn, these results have a natural economic interpretation. Copyright Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, 2003

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Article provided by Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA in its journal Economic Notes.

Volume (Year): 32 (2003)
Issue (Month): 3 (November)
Pages: 295-333
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Handle: RePEc:bla:ecnote:v:32:y:2003:i:3:p:295-333

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  1. Roman Horváth, 2005. "Real Equilibrium Exchange Rate Estimates: To What Extent Are They Applicable for Setting the Central Parity?," Working Papers IES 75, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised 2005. [Downloadable!]
  2. Roman Hotvath, 2005. "Real Equilibrium Exchange Rate Estimates: To What Extent Applicable for Setting the Central Parity?," International Finance 0509006, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  3. Paresh Kumar Narayan, 2006. "Are bilateral real exchange rates stationary? Evidence from Lagrange multiplier unit root tests for India," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 38(1), pages 63-70, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Baharumshah, Ahmad Zubaidi & Chan, Tze-Haw & Aggarwal, Raj, 2006. "The Changing Dynamics of the East Asian Real Exchange Rates after the Financial Crisis: Further Evidence on Mean Reversion," MPRA Paper 6090, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 22 Nov 2007. [Downloadable!]
  5. Paresh Kumar Narayan, 2005. "New evidence on purchasing power parity from 17 OECD countries," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 37(9), pages 1063-1071, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Ondřej Schneider & Jan Zápal, 2005. "Fiscal Policy in New EU Member States: Go East, Prudent Man!," Working Papers IES 76, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised 2005. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Horvath, Roman & Komarek, Lubos, 2006. "Equilibrium Exchange Rates in EU New Members: Applicable for Setting the ERM II Central Parity?," MPRA Paper 1180, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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