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Central Bank Independence, Exchange Rate Policy and Inflation Persistence Empirical Evidence on Selected EMU Countries

Author

Listed:
  • Athanasios Papadopoulos

    (Department of Economics, University of Crete, Greece)

  • Moïse Sidiropoulos

    (Université Louis Pasteur, FRANCE)

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to provide theoretical arguments and explore for empirical evidence for the rationale that low inflation persistence may be achieved either by setting up an independent Central Bank or by an exchange-rate based policy. Our theoretical analysis states that the degree of Central Bank independence and exchange rate policy changes affect the inflation persistence. In addition, our empirical analysis, which concerns with selected EMU countries (France, Germany, Greece, Italy and Spain for the period 1980-1998) validates the argument. In this exercise the most likely date for the change in regime is detected by a procedure based upon the recent work of Perron (1997), where the null hypothesis of a unit root is set against the alternative of stationarity about a single broken trend line.

Suggested Citation

  • Athanasios Papadopoulos & Moïse Sidiropoulos, "undated". "Central Bank Independence, Exchange Rate Policy and Inflation Persistence Empirical Evidence on Selected EMU Countries," Working Papers 0107, University of Crete, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:crt:wpaper:0107
    as

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    File URL: http://economics.soc.uoc.gr/wpa/docs/Independence3c.PDF
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    3. McCallum, Bennett T., 1983. "On non-uniqueness in rational expectations models : An attempt at perspective," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 139-168.
    4. Perron, Pierre, 1997. "Further evidence on breaking trend functions in macroeconomic variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 355-385, October.
    5. Burdekin, Richard C K & Siklos, Pierre L, 1999. "Exchange Rate Regimes and Shifts in Inflation Persistence: Does Nothing Else Matter?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 31(2), pages 235-247, May.
    6. Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 19-46, January.
    7. Thomas J. Sargent & Neil Wallace, 1984. "Some Unpleasant Monetarist Arithmetic," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Brian Griffiths & Geoffrey E. Wood (ed.), Monetarism in the United Kingdom, pages 15-41, Palgrave Macmillan.
    8. Perron, Pierre & Vogelsang, Timothy J, 1992. "Nonstationarity and Level Shifts with an Application to Purchasing Power Parity," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 301-320, July.
    9. Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 2002. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 25-44, January.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exchange rate policy; Central Bank independence; inflation persistence; EMU;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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