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Open Economy Secular Stagnation and Financial Integration

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  • Jean-Baptiste Michau

    (Ecole Polytechnique, France)

Abstract

What is the optimal policy response to secular stagnation within a small open economy? Secular stagnation is characterized by a persistent lack of demand, resulting in under-employment. Within a small open economy, the degree of fi nancial integration determines the nature of the secular stagnation equilibrium. Under perfect capital mobility, stagnation is due to downward nominal wage rigidities; while under financial autarky, it is due to an excessively high real interest rate. I characterize the planners optimal allocation of resources and solve for the tax policy that implements it within a stagnating economy. Under perfect fi nancial integration, payroll taxes should be falling and labor income taxes rising such as to relax the downward nominal wage rigidity; while under fi nancial autarky, the opposite policy should be implemented such as to generate inflation. Alternatively, full employment can be achieved by setting a sufficiently inflation target and by relying on an exchange rate policy to import inflation from abroad. Policy options are more limited under a fixed exchange rate regime, where effciency can either be reached through a coordinated policy response or by abandoning the peg.

Suggested Citation

  • Jean-Baptiste Michau, 2021. "Open Economy Secular Stagnation and Financial Integration," Working Papers 2021-19, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics.
  • Handle: RePEc:crs:wpaper:2021-19
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Murota, Ryu-ichiro, 2022. "The effect of a decline in the world real interest rate on a small open economy experiencing persistent stagnation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial integration; Liquidity trap; Secular stagnation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy
    • F38 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Financial Policy: Financial Transactions Tax; Capital Controls
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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