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On the Transmission of Monetary Policy Shocks

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Abstract

Empirical studies reveal that monetary policy shocks generate long-lasting effects on real GDP, countercyclical real wages before World War II and procyclical real wages afterwards. In this paper, we construct a dynamic general equilibrium model to explain the observed output persistence and the evolving nature of real wage cyclicality. The model features three important rigidities: staggered price-setting, staggered wage-setting, and an input-output structure. We show that, while no subset of the model with fewer ingredients can produce both the desired patterns of real wage dynamics and persistent movements in aggregate output, the model with all three features successfully accounts for these empirical regularities. In particular, it explains how the real wage can change from being countercyclical or acyclical to being procyclical as the input-output structure becomes more sophisticated, while at the same time delivering significant output persistence. The ascending sophistication of the input-output structure in the model mimics the rising complexity of the input-output connections from the prewar period to the postwar period in the actual economies, a trend that is documented in the literature.

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File URL: http://www.unites.uqam.ca/eco/CREFE/cahiers/cah112r.pdf
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File URL: http://www.unites.uqam.ca/eco/CREFE/cahiers/cah112.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by CREFE, Université du Québec à Montréal in its series Cahiers de recherche CREFE / CREFE Working Papers with number 112.

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Length: 25 pages
Date of creation: May 2000
Date of revision: Sep 2001
Handle: RePEc:cre:crefwp:112

Note: Previously circulated under the title "Staggered Contracts, Intermediate Goods, and the Dynamic Effects of Monetary Shocks on Output, Inflation, and Real Wages"
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Related research

Keywords: Staggered Contracts; Input-Output Structure; Real Wage Cyclicality; Output Persistence; Monetary Policy;

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References

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  1. Michael D. Bordo & Christopher J. Erceg & Charles L. Evans, 1997. "Money, sticky wages, and the Great Depression," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues WP-97-02, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  2. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Danny Quah, 1990. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," NBER Working Papers 2737, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Gordon, Robert J, 1990. "What Is New-Keynesian Economics?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 28(3), pages 1115-71, September.
  4. Olivier J. Blanchard, 1982. "Price Asynchronization and Price Level Inertia," NBER Working Papers 0900, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Kevin X. D. Huang & Zheng Liu, 1998. "Staggered Contracts and Business Cycle Persistence," Cahiers de recherche CREFE / CREFE Working Papers 105, CREFE, Université du Québec à Montréal.
  6. V. V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe & Ellen R. McGrattan, 2000. "Sticky Price Models of the Business Cycle: Can the Contract Multiplier Solve the Persistence Problem?," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(5), pages 1151-1180, September.
  7. Basu, S., 1993. "Intermediate Goods and Business Cycles: Implications for Productivity and Welfare," Papers 93-23, Michigan - Center for Research on Economic & Social Theory.
  8. Robert Feenstra & Paul Bergin, 2004. "staggered price setting and endogenous persistence," Working Papers 985, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
  9. Barro, Robert J & Grossman, Herschel I, 1971. "A General Disequilibrium Model of Income and Employment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 61(1), pages 82-93, March.
  10. Ben S. Bernanke & Kevin Carey, 1996. "Nominal Wage Stickiness and Aggregate Supply in the Great Depression," NBER Working Papers 5439, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Kiyotaki, Nobuhiro, 1987. "Monopolistic Competition and the Effects of Aggregate Demand," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(4), pages 647-66, September.
  12. Christiano, Lawrence J. & Eichenbaum, Martin & Evans, Charles L., 1997. "Sticky price and limited participation models of money: A comparison," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(6), pages 1201-1249, June.
  13. Susanto Basu & Alan M. Taylor, 1999. "Business Cycles in International Historical Perspective," NBER Working Papers 7090, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Sims, Christopher A., 1992. "Interpreting the macroeconomic time series facts : The effects of monetary policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 975-1000, June.
  15. Kiley, Michael T, 2000. "Endogenous Price Stickiness and Business Cycle Persistence," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 32(1), pages 28-53, February.
  16. Taylor, John B., 1999. "Staggered price and wage setting in macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 15, pages 1009-1050 Elsevier.
  17. Gali, Jordi, 1992. "How Well Does the IS-LM Model Fit Postwar U.S. Data," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 107(2), pages 709-38, May.
  18. Lucas, Robert E., 1988. "Money demand in the United States: A quantitative review," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 137-167, January.
  19. Eric M. Leeper & Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 1996. "What Does Monetary Policy Do?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 27(2), pages 1-78.
  20. King, Robert G., 1988. "Money demand in the United States: A quantitative review," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 169-172, January.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Chahnez Boudaya, 2005. "The effects of technological innovations on employment : a new explanation," Cahiers de la Maison des Sciences Economiques v05013, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1).
  2. Kevin X. D. Huang & Zheng Liu, 2001. "Input-Output Structure and Nominal Staggering: The Persistence Problem Revisited," Cahiers de recherche CREFE / CREFE Working Papers 145, CREFE, Université du Québec à Montréal.
  3. Jean-Pascal BENASSY, 2003. "Staggered contracts and persistence : microeconomic foundations and macroeconomic dynamics," Discussion Papers (REL - Recherches Economiques de Louvain) 2003021, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
  4. Jean-Pascal Bénassy, 2003. "Staggered contracts and persistence : microeconomic foundations and macroeconomic dynamics," Recherches économiques de Louvain, De Boeck Université, vol. 69(2), pages 125-144.
  5. Chahnez Boudaya, 2006. "Stage-specific technology shocks and employment : Could we reconcile with the RBC models ?," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00115791, HAL.
  6. Michael Gail, 2001. "Persistency and Money Demand Distortions in a Stochastic DGE Model with Sticky Prices," Volkswirtschaftliche Diskussionsbeiträge 96-01, Universität Siegen, Fakultät Wirtschaftswissenschaften, Wirtschaftsinformatik und Wirtschaftsrecht, revised 14 Feb 2003.

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