Vanishing Third World Emigrants?
AbstractThis paper documents a stylized fact not well appreciated in the literature. The Third World has been undergoing an emigration life cycle since the 1960s, and, except for Africa, emigration rates have been level or even declining since a peak in the late 1980s the early 1990s. The current economic crisis will serve only to accelerate those trends. The paper estimates the economic and demographic fundamentals driving these Third World emigration life cycles to the United States since 1970 - the income gap between the US and the sending country, the education gap between the US and the sending country, the poverty trap, the size of the cohort at risk, and migrant stock dynamics. It then projects the life cycle up to 2024. The projections imply that pressure on Third World emigration over the next two decades will not increase. It also suggests that future US immigrants will be more African and less Hispanic.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 7222.
Date of creation: Mar 2009
Date of revision:
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Other versions of this item:
- Timothy J. Hatton & Jeffrey G. Williamson, 2009. "Vanishing Third World Emigrants?," NBER Working Papers 14785, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Timothy J. Hatton & Jeffrey G. Williamson, 2009. "Vanishing Third World Emigrants?," CEPR Discussion Papers 606, Centre for Economic Policy Research, Research School of Economics, Australian National University.
- F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
- J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
- O15 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2009-03-22 (All new papers)
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