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Vanishing Third World Emigrants?

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  • Hatton, Timothy J.
  • Williamson, Jeffrey G

Abstract

This paper documents a stylized fact not well appreciated in the literature. The Third World has been undergoing an emigration life cycle since the 1960s, and, except for Africa, emigration rates have been level or even declining since a peak in the late 1980s the early 1990s. The current economic crisis will serve only to accelerate those trends. The paper estimates the economic and demographic fundamentals driving these Third World emigration life cycles to the United States since 1970 - the income gap between the US and the sending country, the education gap between the US and the sending country, the poverty trap, the size of the cohort at risk, and migrant stock dynamics. It then projects the life cycle up to 2024. The projections imply that pressure on Third World emigration over the next two decades will not increase. It also suggests that future US immigrants will be more African and less Hispanic.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 7222.

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Date of creation: Mar 2009
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:7222

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Keywords: development; emigration; life cycle; Third World;

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References

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  1. Easterlin, Richard A., 1981. "Why Isn't the Whole World Developed?," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 41(01), pages 1-17, March.
  2. Barro, Robert J & Lee, Jong-Wha, 2001. "International Data on Educational Attainment: Updates and Implications," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 53(3), pages 541-63, July.
  3. Nehru, Vikram & Swanson, Eric & Dubey, Ashutosh, 1995. "A new database on human capital stock in developing and industrial countries: Sources, methodology, and results," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 379-401, April.
  4. Jane Sneddon Little & Robert K. Triest, 2001. "Seismic shifts: the economic impact of demographic change: an overview," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, vol. 46.
  5. Timothy J. Hatton & Jeffrey G. Williamson, 1992. "What Drove the Mass Migrations from Europe in the Late Nineteenth Century?," NBER Historical Working Papers 0043, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Jeffrey G. Williamson, 2001. "Demographic shocks and global factor flows," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, vol. 46.
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Cited by:
  1. Arno Tausch & Almas Heshmati, 2013. "Worker remittances and the global preconditions of ‘smart development’," Society and Economy, Akadémiai Kiadó, Hungary, vol. 35(1), pages 25-50, April.
  2. Tausch, Arno & Heshmati, Almas, 2011. "Migration, Openness and the Global Preconditions of 'Smart Development'," IZA Discussion Papers 6169, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  3. Kevin H. O’Rourke, 2009. "Power and Plenty in 2030," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp298, IIIS.
  4. Giovanni Peri, 2012. "Immigration and Europe’s Demographic Problems: Analysis and Policy Considerations," CESifo DICE Report, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 9(4), pages 03-08, 02.

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