Retirement Expectations, Pension Reforms and Their Effect on Private Wealth Accumulation
AbstractWe estimate the effect of pension reforms on households’ expectations of retirement outcomes and private wealth accumulation decisions exploiting a decade of Italian pension reforms as a source of exogenous variation in expected pension wealth. Two parameters are crucial to estimate pension wealth: the age at which workers expect to retire and the expected ratio of pension benefits to pre-retirement income. The Survey of Household Income and Wealth, a large random sample of the Italian population, elicits these expectations during a period of intense pension reforms between 1989 and 2002. These reforms had different consequences for different cohorts and employment groups, providing a quasi-experimental framework to study the effect of social security arrangements on expectations of retirement outcomes and household saving decisions. Our main findings are that workers have revised expectations in the direction suggested by the reform and that there is substantial offset between private wealth and perceived pension wealth.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 4882.
Date of creation: Jan 2005
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: Centre for Economic Policy Research, 77 Bastwick Street, London EC1V 3PZ
Phone: 44 - 20 - 7183 8801
Fax: 44 - 20 - 7183 8820
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
- H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2005-06-14 (All new papers)
- NEP-FMK-2005-06-14 (Financial Markets)
- NEP-LAB-2005-06-14 (Labour Economics)
- NEP-MAC-2005-06-14 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-PBE-2005-06-14 (Public Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Agar Brugiavini, 1999.
"Social Security and Retirement in Italy,"
in: Social Security and Retirement around the World, pages 181-237
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Alan L. Gustman & Thomas L. Steinmeier, 2001.
"Imperfect Knowledge, Retirement and Saving,"
wp012, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.
- Courtney Coile & Jonathan Gruber, 2000. "Social Security and Retirement," NBER Working Papers 7830, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Feldstein, Martin S, 1974. "Social Security, Induced Retirement, and Aggregate Capital Accumulation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 82(5), pages 905-26, Sept./Oct.
- B. Douglas Bernheim, 1989.
"The Timing of Retirement: A Comparison of Expectations and Realizations,"
in: The Economics of Aging, pages 335-358
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- B. Douglas Bernheim, 1987. "The Timing of Retirement: A Comparison of Expectations and Realizations," NBER Working Papers 2291, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Orazio Attanasio & Susanne Rohwedder, 2001. "Pension wealth and household saving: evidence from pension reforms in the UK," IFS Working Papers W01/21, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
- Tito Boeri & Axel Börsch-Supan & Guido Tabellini, 2001. "Would you like to shrink the welfare state? A survey of European citizens," Economic Policy, CEPR & CES & MSH, vol. 16(32), pages 7-50, 04.
- Orazio P. Attanasio & Susann Rohwedder, 2003. "Pension Wealth and Household Saving: Evidence from Pension Reforms in the United Kingdom," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(5), pages 1499-1521, December.
- Jeff Dominitz & Charles F. Manski & Jordan Heinz, 2002.
"Social Security Expectations and Retirement Savings Decisions,"
JCPR Working Papers
273, Northwestern University/University of Chicago Joint Center for Poverty Research.
- Jeff Dominitz & Charles F. Manski & Jordan Heinz, 2002. "Social Security Expectations and Retirement Savings Decisions," NBER Working Papers 8718, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Orazio P. Attanasio & Agar Brugiavini, 2003. "Social Security And Households' Saving," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 118(3), pages 1075-1119, August.
- Richard Disney & Sarah Tanner, 1999. "What can we learn from retirement expectations data?," IFS Working Papers W99/17, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
- Renata Bottazzi & Tullio Jappelli & Mario Padula, 2009.
"The Portfolio Effect of Pension Reforms,"
CSEF Working Papers
234, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
- Renata Bottazzi & Tullio Jappelli & Mario Padula, 2009. "The Portfolio Effect of Pension Reforms," Working Papers 2009_17, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
- Bottazzi, Renata & Jappelli, Tullio & Padula, Mario, 2009. "The Portfolio Effect of Pension Reforms," CEPR Discussion Papers 7380, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Jappelli, Tullio & Padula, Mario, 2007.
"Households' saving and debt in Italy,"
CFS Working Paper Series
2007/30, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ().
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.