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The Phillips Curve in Ireland: 1935 - 2012

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  • Gerlach, Stefan
  • Lydon, Reamonn
  • Stuart, Rebecca

Abstract

We study the determination of Irish inflation between 1935 and 2012 using a Phillips curve approach. We find that a simple backward-looking Phillips Curve that incorporates import prices is stable over the sample period and passes a number of diagnostic tests. We also consider the importance of UK and euro area inflation for Irish inflation. While UK inflation is significant in the period 1935 ? 1979, and euro area inflation is significant in the period 1980 ? 2012, we present evidence that suggests that these findings reflect common shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Gerlach, Stefan & Lydon, Reamonn & Stuart, Rebecca, 2014. "The Phillips Curve in Ireland: 1935 - 2012," CEPR Discussion Papers 10010, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:10010
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Gruen, David & Pagan, Adrian & Thompson, Christopher, 1999. "The Phillips curve in Australia," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 223-258, October.
    2. Bermingham, Colin & Coates, Dermot & Larkin, John & O'Brien, Derry & O'Reilly, Gerard, 2012. "Explaining Irish Inflation during the Financial Crisis," Economic Letters 13/EL/12, Central Bank of Ireland.
    3. Gerlach, Stefan & Stuart, Rebecca, 2014. "Money Demand in Ireland, 1933-2012," CEPR Discussion Papers 9962, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Geary, Patrick T. & McCarthy, Colm, 1976. "Wage and price determination in a labour-exporting economy : The case of Ireland," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 219-233, October.
    5. Thomas, Ryland & Hills, Sally & Dimsdale, Nicholas, 2010. "The UK recession in context — what do three centuries of data tell us?," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, vol. 50(4), pages 277-291.
    6. Kelly, John, 2003. "The Irish Pound: From Origins to EMU," Quarterly Bulletin Articles, Central Bank of Ireland, pages 89-115, March.
    7. A. W. Phillips, 1958. "The Relation Between Unemployment and the Rate of Change of Money Wage Rates in the United Kingdom, 1861–1957," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 25(100), pages 283-299, November.
    8. Gerlach, Stefan & Stuart, Rebecca, 2014. "Money, Interest Rates and Prices in Ireland, 1933-2012," CEPR Discussion Papers 9961, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Bacon, Peter & Durkan, Joe & O'Leary, Jim, 1982. "The Irish Economy: Policy and Performance 1972-1981The Irish Economy: Policy and Performance 1972-1981," Research Series, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number BMI30, June.
    10. Lourdes Acedo Montoya & Björn Döhring, 2011. "The improbable renaissance of the Phillips curve: The crisis and euro area inflation dynamics," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 446, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Historical statistics; Import prices; inflation; Ireland; Output gap;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
    • N14 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - Europe: 1913-

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