IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cpb/docmnt/160.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Two quantative scenarios for the future of manufacturing in Europe

Author

Listed:
  • Arjan Lejour

    (CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis)

  • Gerard Verweij

Abstract

This paper presents two scenarios for the future of manufacturing in Europe with varying trends in globalisation, technological progress and energy efficiency. From these scenarios, we conclude that the trend towards a services economy is likely to continue with employment shifting away from manufacturing towards services. However, manufacturing production still grows and is important for trade in Europe. The sectors which are already the most open ones for international trade are also the ones mostly affected by this trend. These include chemicals, rubber and plastics, the combined machinery and equipment sectors, textiles and wearing apparel, and wood and other manufacturing. R&D policies and internal market policies in Europe can have strong positive impact on manufacturing. These policies do not alter the trend that Europe's share in global production and trade will continue to decline, but they do mitigate the overall decline, in particular in the chemicals, rubber and plastics, and combined machinery and equipment sectors.

Suggested Citation

  • Arjan Lejour & Gerard Verweij, 2008. "Two quantative scenarios for the future of manufacturing in Europe," CPB Document 160, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpb:docmnt:160
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.cpb.nl/sites/default/files/publicaties/download/two-quantative-scenarios-future-manufacturing-europe.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Simeon Djankov & Rafael La Porta & Florencio Lopez-de-Silanes & Andrei Shleifer, 2002. "The Regulation of Entry," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 117(1), pages 1-37.
    2. Arjan Lejour & Paul Veenendaal & Gerard Verweij & Nico van Leeuwen, 2006. "Worldscan; a model for international economic policy analysis," CPB Document 111.rdf, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    3. Arjan Lejour & Paul Veenendaal & Gerard Verweij & Nico van Leeuwen, 2006. "Worldscan; a model for international economic policy analysis," CPB Document 111, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    4. Kox, Henk L.M. & Lejour, Arjan, 2006. "Dynamic effects of European services liberalisation: more to be gained," MPRA Paper 3751, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. de Bruijn, Roland & Kox, Henk & Lejour, Arjan, 2008. "Economic benefits of an Integrated European Market for Services," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 301-319.
    6. Fabienne Ilzkovitz & Adriaan Dierx & Viktoria Kovacs & Nuno Sousa, 2007. "Steps towards a deeper economic integration: the internal market in the 21st century," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 271, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    7. World Bank, 2007. "World Development Indicators 2007," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 8150, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. George Gelauff & Arjan Lejour, 2006. "Five Lisbon highlights; the economic impact of reaching these targets," CPB Document 104.rdf, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    2. Alvaro Cuervo-Cazurra & Luis Alfonso Dau, 2009. "Structural Reform and Firm Exports," Management International Review, Springer, vol. 49(4), pages 479-507, September.
    3. Arjan Lejour & Hugo Rojas-Romagosa, 2008. "International spillovers of domestic reforms: the joint application of the Lisbon Strategy in the EU," CPB Discussion Paper 105.rdf, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    4. Fagerberg, Jan & Srholec, Martin & Verspagen, Bart, 2010. "Innovation and Economic Development," Handbook of the Economics of Innovation, in: Bronwyn H. Hall & Nathan Rosenberg (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Innovation, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 833-872, Elsevier.
    5. Bianka Dettmer, 2012. "The European Union's service directive: Contrasting ex ante estimates with empirical evidence," Jena Economics Research Papers 2012-019, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena.
    6. Lejour, Arjan & Rojas-Romagosa, Hugo & Verweij, Gerard, 2008. "Opening services markets within Europe: Modelling foreign establishments in a CGE framework," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 1022-1039, September.
    7. Paul De Boer & Richard Paap, 2009. "Testing non‐nested demand relations: linear expenditure system versus indirect addilog," Statistica Neerlandica, Netherlands Society for Statistics and Operations Research, vol. 63(3), pages 368-384, August.
    8. Gelauff, George & Lejour, Arjan, 2006. "The new Lisbon Strategy: An estiamtion of the impact of reaching 5 Lisbon targets," MPRA Paper 16168, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Tatiana S. Manolova & Rangamohan V. Eunni & Bojidar S. Gyoshev, 2008. "Institutional Environments for Entrepreneurship: Evidence from Emerging Economies in Eastern Europe," Entrepreneurship Theory and Practice, , vol. 32(1), pages 203-218, January.
    10. Boeters, Stefan & Savard, Luc, 2011. "The labour market in CGE models," ZEW Discussion Papers 11-079, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    11. di Giovanni, Julian & Levchenko, Andrei A., 2013. "Firm entry, trade, and welfare in Zipf's world," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(2), pages 283-296.
    12. Dalla Pellegrina, L. & Masciandaro, D. & Pansini, R.V., 2013. "The central banker as prudential supervisor: Does independence matter?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 415-427.
    13. Paul-Bogdan Zamfir, 2013. "Romania Alignment To Eu Requirements Concerning The Services Integration In The Internal Market," Annals - Economy Series, Constantin Brancusi University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 2, pages 329-334, April.
    14. L. Dalla Pellegrina & D. Masciandaro & R. Pansini, 2014. "Do exchange rate regimes affect the role of central banks as banking supervisors?," European Journal of Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 38(2), pages 279-315, October.
    15. Un, C. Annique & Cuervo-Cazurra, Alvaro, 2008. "Do subsidiaries of foreign MNEs invest more in R&D than domestic firms?," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(10), pages 1812-1828, December.
    16. Stefan Boeters & Johannes Bollen, 2012. "Fossil Fuel Supply, Leakage and the Effectiveness of Border Measures in Climate Policy," CPB Discussion Paper 215.rdf, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    17. Fan, Ying & Zhu, Lei, 2010. "A real options based model and its application to China's overseas oil investment decisions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 627-637, May.
    18. Stefan Boeters & Nico van Leeuwen, 2010. "A labour market extension for WorldScan; modelling labour supply, wage bargaining and unemployment in a CGE framework," CPB Document 201.rdf, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    19. Wim Suyker, 2007. "The Chinese economy, seen from Japan and the Netherlands," CPB Memorandum 185, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    20. David KUCERA & Leanne RONCOLATO, 2008. "Informal employment: Two contested policy issues," International Labour Review, International Labour Organization, vol. 147(4), pages 321-348, December.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • L60 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Manufacturing - - - General
    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cpb:docmnt:160. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cpbgvnl.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.