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Simulating the U.S. Recession with and without the Obama package: the role of excess capacity

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  • Peter B. Dixon
  • Maureen T. Rimmer

Abstract

Simulations with dynamic, single-country, CGE models typically imply that reductions in domestic demand, e.g. a cut in investment, generate increases in exports and reductions in imports facilitated by real depreciation. However, currently in the U.S. a large reduction in investment is occurring simultaneously with a contraction in exports and little movement in the real exchange rate. We show that to describe this situation it is necessary to drop the standard CGE assumption that capital is always fully employed in every industry. After introducing an excess-capacity specification, we simulate the U.S. recession with and without the Obama stimulus package.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre in its series Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers with number g-193.

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Date of creation: Jan 2010
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Handle: RePEc:cop:wpaper:g-193

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Related research

Keywords: U S recession CGE modelling excess capacity sticky rents mark-up pricing;

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  1. W. Jill Harrison & Mark Horridge & K.R. Pearson & Glyn Wittwer, 2002. "A Practical Method for Explicitly Modeling Quotas and Other Complementarities," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers ip-78, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
  2. Richard Harris, 1983. "Applied General Equilibrium Analysis of Small Open Economies with Scale Economies and Imperfect Competition," Working Papers 524, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
  3. Ratto, Marco & Roeger, Werner & Veld, Jan in 't, 2009. "QUEST III: An estimated open-economy DSGE model of the euro area with fiscal and monetary policy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 222-233, January.
  4. Kaludura Abayasiri-Silva & Mark Horridge, 1996. "Economies of Scale and Imperfect Competition in an Applied General Equilibrium Model of the Australian Economy," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers op-84, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
  5. Boeters, Stefan & Böhringer, Christoph & Feil, Michael, 2002. "Taxation and unemployment: an applied general equilibrium approach for Germany," ZEW Discussion Papers 02-39, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
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