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Revisando la evidencia sobre frenazos súbitos y crisis financieras

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  • César TAMAYO y Andrés VARGAS

Abstract

La nueva oleada de flujos de capital hacia economías emergentes ha renovado el interés por laocurrencia de un nuevo frenazo súbito o crisis de flujos de capital. Este trabajo es una nuevaaproximación al tema, a partir de los problemas de liquidez como determinantes de estosfrenazos súbitos. Se presenta una extensión al modelo planteado originalmente por Rodrik yVelasco (1999) en la que se introducen controles al capital y se modifican algunos supuestossobre el comportamiento de los acreedores. Adicionalmente, se estima un modelo probit en unamuestra de 39 países para el período 1978-2006 en el que se buscan los principalesdeterminantes de la ocurrencia de crisis. Los resultados confirman la hipótesis de iliquidez altiempo que restan importancia a las Reservas como medida de liquidez, invitando a reflexionarsobre la acelerada acumulación de éstas observada en la última década. Asimismo, el ejercicioofrece un nuevo acercamiento al papel que juega el grado de apertura al capital en la incidenciade frenazos súbitos. Para el caso de Colombia se observa que la probabilidad estimada de sufrircrisis ha caído sustancialmente, producto de menores déficit en cuenta corriente y una caídasistemática en la deuda de corto plazo desde mediados de los anos 1990.

Suggested Citation

  • César TAMAYO y Andrés VARGAS, 2007. "Revisando la evidencia sobre frenazos súbitos y crisis financieras," Archivos de Economía 3948, Departamento Nacional de Planeación.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000118:003948
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Frenazos súbitos; deuda de corto plazo; controles al capital; probit.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems

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